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Forex - Weekly outlook: November 25 - 29

Published 11/24/2013, 04:49 AM
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Investing.com - The euro moved higher against the dollar on Friday and rose to four year peaks against the yen as stronger-than-forecast German business confidence data indicated that the economic recovery in the euro zone is gaining traction.

Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose to 109.3 in November, its highest level since April 2012, from 107.4 in October. Economists had expected the index to tick up to 107.7.

The data pointed to a broad based recovery in the euro zone’s largest economy and eased concerns over the possibility of further rate cuts by the European Central Bank. The euro also remained supported after ECB President Mario Draghi after downplayed speculation over negative deposit rates in the euro zone in a speech on Thursday.

EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3556, up from 1.3480 on Thursday. For the week, the pair gained 0.39%.

The euro ended the week 1.81% higher against the broadly weaker yen, with EUR/JPY settling at 137.28, the highest level since October 2009.

Elsewhere, the dollar rose to four-and-a-half month highs against the yen, with USD/JPY ending Friday’s session at 101.25, the highest level since July 8. For the week, the pair jumped 1.40%, the fourth consecutive weekly gain.

The yen remained under pressure amid mounting expectations that the Bank of Japan will implement additional monetary easing measures next year.

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated Thursday that the bank will stick to its easing program and is prepared to take additional steps in order to meet its 2% inflation target. The comments came at a news conference following a decision by the bank to keep monetary policy on hold.

The Australian dollar dropped to 11-week lows against the U.S. dollar on Friday after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said the bank believed that intervening in the currency market to lower the Aussie’s value could be effective in the right circumstances.

AUD/USD ended Friday’s session at 0.9170, the lowest level since September 6, down from 0.9232 on Thursday. The pair lost 2.11% for the week, the fifth weekly decline.

Demand for the U.S. dollar continued to be underpinned after Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting said the bank could start scaling back its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in the “coming months” if the economy continues to improve as expected.

In the week ahead, the euro zone is to release what will be closely watched data on consumer prices and the unemployment rate.

The U.S. is to release a series of reports on the housing sector, as well as data on consumer confidence and durable goods orders. Meanwhile, Canada and Switzerland are to release official data on economic growth rates.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 25

Switzerland is to release data on the employment level during the previous quarter, a leading economic indicator.

The U.S. is to release private sector data on pending home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, November 26

The Bank of Japan is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and several BoE policymakers are to testify on the outlook for inflation and economic growth before parliament’s Treasury Committee.

The U.S. is to produce data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction activity as well as a report on housing starts. The nation is also to release private sector data on consumer confidence and house price inflation.

Later Tuesday, New Zealand is to publish data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

Wednesday, November 27

Australia is to release data on completed construction work, an important gauge of activity in the sector.

In the euro zone, Germany is to release the Gfk report on consumer climate.

The U.K. is to release revised data on third quarter economic growth, as well as preliminary data on business investment.

The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment. The Labor Department is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims one day ahead of schedule due to Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday.

Thursday, November 28

Japan is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

New Zealand is to release private sector data on business confidence and a separate report on building consents, while Australia is to produce data on private capital expenditure.

Switzerland is to release data on third quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.

In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation, in addition to data on the change in the number of people unemployed.

The BoE is to publish its twice yearly financial stability report. BoE Governor Mark Carney is to hold a press conference about the report.

Canada is to release data on the current account and a separate report on raw materials price inflation.

Markets in the U.S. will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Friday, November 29

Japan is to release a series of data, including reports on household spending, inflation, and industrial production.

Australia is to produce data on private sector credit.

Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.

The U.K. is to release data on net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and a separate report on the unemployment rate across the currency bloc. Germany is to release data on retail sales.

Canada is to round up the week with the monthly report on GDP growth.




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