Forex - Weekly outlook: November 12 - 16

Published 11/11/2012, 03:04 AM
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Investing.com - The euro ended the week at a two-month low against the U.S. dollar on Friday and a one-month low against the safe-haven yen as concerns over the economic and fiscal outlook for the euro zone weighed on demand for the single currency.

The euro weakened broadly after Germany’s Economic Ministry warned Friday that economic growth was likely to weaken in the fourth quarter and going into the first quarter of 2013, underlining fears over a slowdown in the bloc’s largest economy.

Elsewhere, official data showed that industrial production in France fell in October and the country’s central bank said it expected the economy to enter a recession by the end of this year.

Market participants were anticipating a Greek vote on the 2013 budget on Sunday; just days after the country’s parliament narrowly approved a new austerity package needed to secure the next tranche of bailout funds.

Without the next aid installment, Greece risks default on November 16, when Athens must repay EUR5 billion of debts.

Eurozone finance ministers are to meet in Brussels on Monday, although they are not expected to approve releasing the latest aid tranche to Greece.

Meanwhile, uncertainty over whether Spain will request a bailout continued to cloud the outlook for the euro after a successful Spanish bond auction on Thursday eased pressure on Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to seek aid before the end of this year.

Safe haven demand for the dollar and the yen was underpinned by concerns over the U.S. fiscal cliff, automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1 unless lawmakers can reach an agreement, which could threaten U.S. and global growth.

The dollar pared losses against the yen on Friday, to end the day almost unchanged after a report showed that U.S. consumer confidence improved more-than-expected in November.

The University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 84.9, the fourth successive monthly increase and the highest level since July 2007, from 82.6 in October, compared to expectations for a reading of 83.0.

The Australian dollar was lower against the greenback on Friday, as broadly better-than-forecast data out of China was overshadowed by concerns over U.S. fiscal policy and the outlook for the euro zone.

In the coming week, investors will be anticipating preliminary data on third quarter growth from the euro zone, amid concerns that the economic downturn in the region is deepening. Markets will also be closely following developments in Greece and Spain.

In addition, Japan is to produce data on third quarter growth, while the Bank of England is to release its quarterly inflation report.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 12

Japan is to release preliminary data on third quarter gross domestic product, the widest measure of economic activity and the foremost indicator of the economy's health. The country is also to release government data on tertiary industry activity.

Later in the day, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Australia is to produce official data on home loans, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market. The country is also to release a report on business confidence.

In the euro zone, the eurogroup of finance ministers is to hold talks in Brussels to discuss financial issues in the bloc.

Markets in the U.S. and Canada are to remain closed on Monday for national holidays.

Tuesday, November 13

The U.K. is to official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation, as well as industry data on house prices, a leading indicator of housing inflation.

Switzerland is to produce government data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

In the euro zone, the eurogroup of finance ministers is to hold a second day of talks to discuss financial issues in the bloc. In addition, the ZEW Centre for Economic Research is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, as well as data on sentiment in the wider euro zone.

The U.S. is to release official data on the federal budget balance.

Later in the day, New Zealand is to publish official data on retail sales, the leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Wednesday, November 14

Australia is to release private sector data on consumer sentiment, as well as a government report on the wage price index, a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

The U.K. is to produce official data on the monthly change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits and the unemployment rate, a leading indicator of economic health.

Also Wednesday, the Bank of England is to release its quarterly inflation report, which outlines the bank’s growth and inflation forecasts for the following two years. BoE Governor Mervyn King is to hold a press conference about the report in London.

The ZEW Centre is to produce a report on economic expectations in Switzerland.

The euro zone is to release official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to produce government data on retail sales, producer price inflation and business inventories. In addition, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy-setting meeting.

Thursday, November 15

Australia is to release a report on inflation expectations, as well as official data on new vehicle sales.

The euro zone is to produce official data on consumer price inflation, as well as preliminary data on third quarter GDP. France, Germany and Italy are also to release individual GDP reports. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is to publish its monthly bulletin, which looks at economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Elsewhere in Europe, the U.K. is to release official data on retail sales.

Later in the day, Canada is to publish a government report on manufacturing sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to release a flurry of data, with reports on initial jobless claims, consumer price inflation, crude oil stockpiles, in addition to data on manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke would be closely watched for any indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Friday, November 16

The euro zone is to release official data on the current account, which is closely linked to currency demand.

Canada is to publish government data on foreign securities purchases.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on the capacity utilization rate and industrial production, as well as a report on the balance of domestic and foreign securities purchases.



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