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Forex - Weekly outlook: May 4 - 8

Published 05/03/2015, 06:40 AM
© Reuters.  Dollar regains ground after U.S. economic reports boost outlook
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Investing.com - The dollar regained ground against the other major currencies on Friday after a flurry of mixed economic reports indicated that the U.S. economy may be stabilizing after a recent bout of weakness.

A report by the Institute for Supply Management on Friday showed that activity in the manufacturing sector was stable in April, after slowing in the five previous months.

The ISM manufacturing index came in at 51.5 in April, matching the March reading, which had been the lowest since May 2013.

Another report showed that U.S. consumer sentiment rose in April to its highest level since January.

Separately, the Commerce Department said construction spending fell 0.6% to an annual rate of $966.6 billion in March, the lowest level since September.

The reports fuelled optimism that the U.S. economy has turned a corner after a recent soft patch.

The dollar had received a boost after a report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell to a 15 year low of 262,000, pointing to health growth in the labor market.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was last up 0.53% to 95.38 late Friday, after falling to two-month lows of 94.47 on Thursday.

EUR/USD was down 0.22% to 1.1198 late Friday, still not far from two-month peaks of 1.1289.

USD/JPY rose 0.64% to three-week highs of 120.13 in late trade, while GBP/USD dropped 1.39% to 1.5137.

Data earlier in the week showed that the U.S. economy grew just 0.2% in the three months to March, slowing from 2.2% in the final quarter of 2014. It was the slowest rate of growth in a year.

The weaker-than-expected data prompted investors to push back expectations on the timing of an initial rate hike by the Federal Reserve to later this year from midyear.

In its rate statement on Wednesday the Federal Reserve said recent indications of a slowdown in growth were probably due to “transitory factors.”

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, for a fresh indication on the strength of the economic recovery. A central bank meeting in Australia and service sector reports from the U.S., U.K., China and the euro zone will also be closely watched.

Monday, May 4

Markets in Japan and in the U.K. are to remain closed for holidays.

Australia is to publish data on building approvals.

China is to release private sector activity on manufacturing activity.

The euro area is to produce revised data on manufacturing activity.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish figures on factory orders.

Tuesday, May 5

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a holiday.

Australia is to produce data on the trade balance, while the central bank is to announce its latest monetary policy decision and publish its rate statement.

In the euro zone, Spain is to publish its monthly employment report.

The U.S. is to release survey data on construction sector activity.

Both the U.S. and Canada are to release trade data, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release a report on U.S. service sector activity.

Wednesday, May 6

New Zealand is to release its quarterly employment report.

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for holidays. China is to produce private sector activity on service sector growth.

Australia is to publish a report on retail sales.

The euro zone is to publish revised data on service sector activity and a report on retail sales.

The U.K. is also to report on service sector activity.

The U.S. is to release its monthly ADP nonfarm payrolls report and Later in the day Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington DC.

Canada is to release its Ivey PMI.

Thursday, May 7

Australia is to produce its monthly employment report.

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish a report on factory orders.

The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves.

The U.K. is to hold general elections.

Canada is to release data on building permits.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, May 8

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to release its monetary policy statement.

Switzerland is to publish data on consumer inflation.

Canada is to release its monthly employment report.

The U.S. is to round up the week with what will be the closely watched government nonfarm payrolls report.

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