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Forex - Weekly outlook: May 2 - 6

Published 05/01/2016, 06:58 AM
Updated 05/01/2016, 10:58 AM
© Reuters.  Dollar slumps to 8-month lows as yen surges
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Investing.com - The dollar slumped to eight-month lows against a basket of its major peers on Friday as the yen continued to build on strong gains from earlier in the week, following central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.76% at 93.02 late Friday, the weakest level since August 2015. The index ended the week down 2.14%.

The greenback weakened across the board after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold on Wednesday and indicated that any future interest rate hikes would be data dependent.

Data on Thursday showed that the U.S. economy grew at the slowest rate in two years in the first quarter, with gross domestic product increasing just 0.5% from a year earlier.

Another report on Friday showed that both personal spending and the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, ticked up 0.1% in March.

The yen continued to rally after the Bank of Japan held off from unveiling new policy easing measures at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Thursday, defying market expectations for further stimulus.

USD/JPY fell 1.54% to 106.45 late Friday, the weakest since October 2014. The pair ended the week down 4.49%, the worst weekly performance since the 2008 global financial crisis.

The yen was also higher against the euro, with EUR/JPY down 0.73% at 121.94 late Friday. The pair ended the previous session down 2.73%.

The euro rose to almost three-week highs against the dollar, with EUR/USD advancing 0.9% to 1.1453.

The single currency was boosted after data on Friday showed that the bloc’s economy grew at the fastest pace in five years in the first quarter, with GDP rising 0.6%, well ahead of expectations of 0.4% growth.

The euro area economy notched up annual growth of 1.6%.

But a separate report showed that the region slid back into deflation in April, with consumer prices falling 0.2% from a year earlier.

Elsewhere, sterling touched 12-week highs against the dollar, with GBP/USD hitting 1.4670, the strongest since early February and was last at 1.4602, ending the week with gains of 1.09%.

Demand for the pound was underpinned as concerns diminished that a June 23 referendum will lead to a vote for Britain to leave the European Union.

In the week ahead, investors will be turning their attention to Friday’s U.S. jobs report for April, with any changes to wage growth particularly in focus. Traders will also be looking at reports on manufacturing and service sector activity from the U.S., China and the U.K.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 2

Financial markets in China will be closed for a national holiday.

Markets in the U.K. will also be closed for a holiday.

European Central Bank head Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Frankfurt.

In the U.S., the Institute for Supply Management is to publish its monthly manufacturing index.

Tuesday, May 3

Markets in Japan will be closed for a holiday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

Australia is also to release data on building approvals.

China is to publish the Caixin manufacturing index.

The U.K. is to publish its manufacturing activity index.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak at an event in Los Angeles.

Wednesday, May 4

New Zealand is to release its quarterly employment report.

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a national holiday.

The U.K. is to report on construction sector activity.

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, the ISM report on service sector activity and data on factory orders.

Both the U.S. and Canada are to release trade data.

Thursday, May 5

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a national holiday.

Australia is to release reports on retail sales and the trade balance.

China is to publish the Caixin report on service sector activity.

The U.K. is to report on service sector activity.

The U.S. is to release data on building permits and the weekly report on jobless claims.

Friday, May 6

The RBA is to publish its monetary policy statement, which gives insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation.

The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves.

Canada is to produce its monthly employment report.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched report on nonfarm payrolls.

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