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Forex - Weekly outlook: May 16 - 20

Published 05/15/2016, 06:56 AM
Updated 05/15/2016, 02:56 PM
© Reuters.  Dollar rises to 1-month highs after upbeat U.S. retail sales, consumer sentiment data
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Investing.com - The dollar rose to one-month highs against a basket of its major peers on Friday after stronger-than-expected reports on U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment soothed investor concerns over the strength of the economy.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose 0.52% to 94.6, the strongest level since late April.

The index ended the week with gains of 0.76%, the second successive weekly gain.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that retail sales jumped 1.3% in April, topping economists’ expectations for a 0.8% increase. It was the largest monthly increase since March 2015.

The dollar received an additional boost after data showing that U.S. consumer sentiment improved this month.

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment came in at 95.8 in May, up from 89.0 in April and well ahead of expectations for a reading of 90.0. It was the highest reading since June 2015.

The upbeat data helped ease some fears over the outlook for the U.S. economy and rekindled expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than anticipated.

The dollar rose to two-week highs against the euro and the pound, with EUR/USD down 0.55% to 1.1309 and GBP/USD sliding 0.48% to 1.4371.

In the euro zone, data on Friday showed that first quarter growth was revised down slightly to 0.5% from an initial estimate of 0.6%.

Annual growth also slowed slightly to 1.5%, from a previously reported 1.6%.

Sterling remained under pressure after the International Monetary Fund warned Friday that a U.K. exit from the European Union could trigger a stock market crash and steep falls in house prices.

The dollar was lower against the yen, with USD/JPY down 0.35% to 108.61 late Friday, holding well above the 18-month low of 105.54 set earlier this month after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Tuesday’s data on U.S. inflation and Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s April meeting for clues on the path of future interest rate increases.

Preliminary data from Japan on first quarter growth and jobs reports from the U.K. and Australia will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 16

Frankfurt Stock Exchange will remain closed for the Whit-Monday holiday.

The U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in the New York region.

Tuesday, May 17

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, giving investors insight into how officials view the economy and their policy options.

New Zealand is to release data on inflation expectations.

Switzerland is to publish data on producer prices.

The U.K. is to produce a report on consumer inflation.

Canada is to report on manufacturing sales.

The U.S. is to release a flurry of data, including figures on consumer prices, building permits, housing starts and industrial production.

Wednesday, May 18

New Zealand is to release data on producer price inflation input.

Japan is to produce preliminary data on first quarter economic growth.

The U.K. is to publish its monthly employment report.

The euro area is to release revised data on consumer inflation.

The Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its April meeting.

Thursday, May 19

Australia is to publish its monthly employment report.

The U.K. is to release data on retail sales.

The European Central Bank is to publish the minutes of its April meeting.

Canada is to report on wholesale sales.

The U.S. is to report on initial jobless claims and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, May 20

Tokyo is to host the G7 meeting.

Canada is to release data on retail sales and consumer prices.

The U.S. is to round up the week with industry data on existing home sales.

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