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Forex - Weekly outlook: March 9 - 13

Published 03/08/2015, 07:32 AM
Updated 03/08/2015, 01:58 PM
© Reuters. Dollar index rallied to 11-1/2 year highs after robust U.S. jobs report
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar rallied to fresh eleven-and-a-half year highs against a basket of major currencies on Friday as a strong U.S. jobs report solidified expectations for higher interest rates.

The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 295,000 jobs in February, far more than the 240,000 forecast by economists. The unemployment rate ticked down to 5.5% from 5.7% in January, the lowest since May 2008. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate would fall to 5.6%.

The robust jobs report fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates around the middle of this year.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, jumped 1.39% to 97.74 late Friday, the highest since September 2003.

EUR/USD dropped 1.69% to 1.0841, a day after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi confirmed that it will begin purchasing euro zone government bonds on Monday under its new quantitative easing program.

The combined monthly asset purchases will amount to €60 billion per month and are expected to run until September 2016, or until the ECB sees that inflation is on a “sustained path” to its target of close to, but below, 2%.

Draghi also said that the ECB expects to see higher growth and inflation over the coming years.

Among other currencies, USD/JPY hit three-month highs of 121.27 and was last at 120.80, 0.57% higher for the day. GBP/USD fell 1.34% to 1.5036, while USD/CHF advanced 1.17% to 0.9852.

The Canadian dollar was also sharply lower on Friday as weak domestic economic reports underlined the diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada.

Official figures showed that Canada posted a larger-than-forecast trade deficit of C$2.45 billion in January as low oil prices hit Canada's crude exports.

Another report showed that the value of Canadian building permits issued in January fell 12.9% to C$6.13 billion, far worse than forecasts of a 4.3% decline.

USD/CAD was last up 1.09% to 1.2622 in late trade.

In the week ahead, markets will be watching talks on Greece by euro zone finance ministers in Brussels on Monday, while Thursday’s U.S. retail sales report will also be closely watched for further indications on the strength of the recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 9

Japan is to release data on the current account and revised data on economic growth.

Eurogroup finance ministers are to hold a meeting in Brussels to discuss funding options for Greece.

Elsewhere in Europe, Switzerland is to release data on retail sales.

Tuesday, March 10

Australia is to publish private sector data on business confidence.

China is to release report on consumer and producer inflation and the trade balance.

In the euro zone, France is to publish a report on industrial production.

Wednesday, March 11

Australia is to release private sector data on consumer sentiment, as well as official data on home loans.

China is to publish reports on industrial production and fixed asset investment.

The U.K. is to produce data on industrial and manufacturing production.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

Thursday, March 12

Australia is to release data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate.

The U.K. is to publish a report on the trade balance.

Canada is to publish data on new house price inflation.

At the same time the U.S. is to produce data on retail sales and initial jobless claims.

Friday, March 13

Canada is to publish its monthly employment report.

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer prices and consumer sentiment.

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