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Forex - Weekly outlook: March 7-11

Published 03/06/2011, 04:51 AM
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Investing.com – Last week saw the euro climb above 1.40 against the U.S. dollar for the first time since November, as expectations for a rake hike by the European Central Bank next month overshadowed better-than-expected U.S. February jobs data.

On Thursday, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said ‘‘an increase in interest rates at our next policy meeting is possible’’. The comments came after the bank’s Governing Council held its official cash rate at 1%, where it has been since May 2009.

Employers in the U.S. added 192,000 jobs in February, the most since May, surpassing expectations for an increase of 180,000 Labor Department data showed Friday. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.9%, the lowest since April 2009.

However, the data disappointed some investors who see strong U.S. jobs growth as necessary for the Federal Reserve to end its second round of quantitative easing and raise interest rates.

The dollar was also hit as continued unrest in North Africa and the Middle East pushed oil prices higher. Crude oil for April delivery rose as much as 7.5% last week to USD105.17 a barrel in New York, the highest level since September 2008, amid concerns over a disruption to supplies.

The Swiss franc rallied to a record high against the dollar amid increased demand for safe haven assets while expectations that the Swiss National Bank could also be closer to raising rates also boosted the currency.

Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar fell to a five-month low against its U.S. counterpart last week. The kiwi’s losses came amid expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rates at its next meeting, as the nations economy struggles to recover from a second earthquake in six months.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release official data on retail sales for February as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading for March. Meanwhile, European leaders are to gather for a European Union summit meeting.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 7

In the euro zone, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is to speak at a public engagement. His comments will be closely watched for clues to the future direction of monetary policy. Also Monday, the Sentix research institute is to publish a report on investor confidence in the euro zone.

Both Canada and New Zealand are to publish government data on the number of building approvals issued, a leading indicator of future construction activity, while Australia is to publish data on the change in the number of jobs advertised, an important indicator of economic health.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish official data on consumer credit, while Japan is to publish official data on bank lending and M2 money stock as well as the country’s current account balance.

Tuesday, March 8

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish official data on factory orders, a leading indicator of production, while France is to publish government data on its trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the month.

The U.K. is to release industry reports on retail sales and house prices while Australia is to publish data on business confidence and consumer sentiment.

Japan is to publish government data on core machinery orders, a leading indicator of production while the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Masaaki Shirakawa is to deliver a speech in Frankfurt.

Also Tuesday, Canada is to publish official data on housing starts, a leading indicator of economic health while Switzerland is to publish official data on its unemployment rate.

Wednesday, March 9

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health. Elsewhere in Europe, Switzerland is to publish government data on consumer price inflation, while the U.K. is to publish official data on its trade balance.

Australia is to publish official data on home loans, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market. Meanwhile, the RBNZ is to announce its official cash rate. The rate statement will be followed up by a closely watched press conference to discuss the interest rate decision.

Canada is to publish official data on new home prices, a leading indicator of the housing industry's health, while the U.S. is to publish a government report on crude oil stockpiles.

Elsewhere Wednesday, Japan is to publish final data on fourth quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.

Thursday, March 10

Australia is to release official data on employment change and the country’s unemployment rate, a leading indicator of economic health.

Later in the day, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Glenn Stevens is to deliver a speech in London; his comments will be closely scrutinized for clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

In the euro zone, France is to publish data on industrial production while the ECB is to publish its monthly bulletin, which contains a detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions.

Also Thursday, the U.K. is to publish official data on manufacturing production, a leading indicator of economic health. In addition, the Bank of England is to announce its official bank rate.

The U.S. is to publish a key weekly report on initial jobless claims, the nation’s earliest employment data as well as data on the country’s trade balance. Canada is also to publish its trade balance report.

Friday, March 11

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The nation is also to publish a report on business inventories, while the University of Michigan is to produce preliminary data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

In the euro zone, Germany is to release final data on consumer price inflation as well as a report on wholesale prices, while the European Union economic summit is to begin in Brussels.

Meanwhile, the U.K. is to publish official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation. Later in the day, BoE Governor Mervyn King is to speak at a public engagement.

Also Friday, Canada is to publish official data on employment change and the country’s unemployment rate, a leading indicator of overall economic health.

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