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Forex - Weekly outlook: March 28 - April 1

Published 03/27/2016, 05:56 AM
Updated 03/27/2016, 12:56 PM
© Reuters.  Dollar edges higher in holiday-thinned trade on Friday
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Investing.com - The dollar edged higher against the other major currencies in thin trade on Friday as an upward revision to U.S. fourth quarter growth underpinned expectations for an interest rate increase in the coming months.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, edged up 0.115 to 96.17. The index ended the week up 1.1%.

Trading condition were thin, with many financial markets closed for the Good Friday holiday.

The Commerce Department fourth quarter gross domestic product was revised up to an annualized 1.4% from last month’s estimate of 1% growth.

Economists had expected an unchanged reading.

The data came after hawkish comments by Federal Reserve officials earlier in the week raised the prospects that the central bank could act soon to raise interest rates.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Wednesday that policymakers should consider a rate hike at their next meeting in April.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said that there is a strong case to continue to raise interest rates and added that he would like to see three rate hikes before the years end.

Separately, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he expects two more rate hikes this year, if the economy remains on track.

Higher interest rates would boost the dollar by making it more attractive to yield seeking investors.

USD/JPY was up 0.19% at 113.11 late Friday and ended the week with gains of 1.51%.

EUR/USD dipped 0.09% to 1.1166 and was down 0.97% for the week.

The pound ended the week down 2.32%, with GBP/USD at 1.4125 as uncertainty over Britain’s future in the European Union weighed ahead of the June 23 referendum.

Sterling came under additional selling pressure amid fears that a series of bomb attacks Brussels could bolster the case for a British exit from the EU.

In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting Friday’s U.S. jobs report for March. The nonfarm payrolls report is viewed as the clearest indicator of how the U.S. economy is performing.

Wednesday’s euro zone inflation report will also be in focus and investors will be closely watching Friday’s data on Chinese manufacturing and service sector activity.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 28

Markets in Australia, Hong Kong, London, Frankfurt, Paris and Milan will be closed for Easter Monday.

The U.S. is to release reports on personal spending and pending home sales.

Tuesday, March 29

Japan is to produce data on household spending and retail sales.

Canada is to report on raw material inflation.

The U.S. is to release private sector data on consumer confidence.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event at the Economic Club of New York.

Wednesday, March 30

In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to release the monthly ADP nonfarm payrolls report.

Thursday, March 31

New Zealand is to release private sector data on business confidence.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is to speak at an event in Tokyo.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on inflation.

Germany is to release data on retail sales and unemployment change, while Spain is to report on inflation.

The U.K. is to release revised data on fourth quarter growth, as well as figures on the current account and net lending.

The U.S. is to report on initial jobless claims.

Canada is to release its monthly GDP report.

Friday, April 1

Japan is to publish the Tankan surveys of the manufacturing and services sectors.

China is to release official data on manufacturing and service sector activity, as well as the private sector Caixin manufacturing index.

The U.K. is to publish data on manufacturing activity.

The euro zone is to report on the unemployment rate.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report and data from the Institute of Supply Management on manufacturing activity.

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