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Forex - Weekly outlook: March 24 - 28

Published 03/23/2014, 05:56 AM
Dollar slips lower vs. other currencies at week's end
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Investing.com - The dollar eased against the other major currencies on Friday, after posting strong gains in the previous two sessions amid expectations that the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates earlier than previously thought.

The dollar rallied on Wednesday after Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated that the bank could begin to raise interest rates about six months after its bond-buying program winds up, which is expected to happen this fall.

The comments prompted investors to bring forward expectations for a rate hike to as soon as March of next year.

The Fed also reduced its monthly bond purchases by an additional $10 billion to $55 billion at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting, and said there was “underlying strength in the broader economy.”

EUR/USD edged up 0.12% to 1.3793 on Friday, after falling to two-week lows of 1.3748 on Thursday.

The single currency was boosted after data on Friday showed that the region’s current account surplus rose to a record €25.3 billion in January.

The dollar also slipped against the yen and the Swiss franc, with USD/JPY sliding 0.14% to 102.24 at the close, down from Wednesday’s highs of 102.67. USD/CHF edged down 0.09% to 0.8828.

Caution returned to markets as the political standoff between the West and Russia over Ukraine escalated, after the U.S. imposed harsher sanctions on Moscow. The European Union also agreed to wider sanctions against Russia, fanning concerns over the impact on global growth.

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar rose against the greenback on Friday as stronger-than-forecast data on inflation and retail sales eased pressure on the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates.

Statistics Canada reported consumer prices rose 0.8% in February, up from 0.3% in January. On a year-over-year basis, inflation slowed to 1.1%, from 1.5% in January.

Another report showed that Canadian retail sales rose by a large-than forecast 1.3% in January.

USD/CAD slid 0.18% to settle at 1.1220, backing off the four-and-a-half year peaks of 1.1277 reached on Thursday.

In the coming week, investors will be looking ahead to U.S. data from the housing sector, as well as reports on consumer confidence and durable goods. China is to publish what will be closely watched data on manufacturing and the U.K. is to publish a report on retail sales.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 24

China is to release the preliminary estimate of the HSBC manufacturing index, a leading indicator of economic health.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on manufacturing and service sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health. Germany and France are also to release individual reports.

The U.S. is to release preliminary data on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, March 25

In the euro zone, Germany is to release the Ifo report on business climate.

The U.K. is to release data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. The nation is also to release private sector data on retail sales.

Later Tuesday, the U.S. is to release report on house price inflation and consumer confidence, as well as official data on new home sales.

Wednesday, March 26

In the euro zone, Germany is to release a report on Gfk consumer climate.

The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production.

New Zealand is to release data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

Thursday, March 27

The euro zone is to release data on M3 money supply.

The U.K. is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The U.S. is to publish final data on fourth quarter economic growth. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and private sector data on pending home sales.

Friday, March 28

Japan is to release a series of data, including reports on household spending, inflation and retail sales.

In the euro zone, Germany is to produce preliminary data on consumer inflation, while France is to publish data on consumer spending.

The U.K. is to release data on the current account and final data on fourth quarter growth.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on personal spending and revised data on consumer sentiment.

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