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Forex - Weekly outlook: March 10 - 14

Published 03/09/2014, 06:14 AM
Euro off highs vs. dollar after strong U.S. jobs report
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Investing.com - The dollar rose to six-week highs against the yen on Friday and pulled back from two-and-a-half year lows against the euro after data showed that the U.S. jobs report for February came in ahead of expectations.

The U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department reported, well above expectations for 149,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.7% from 6.6% in January, as more people joined the workforce.

The jobs report eased concerns over soft U.S. employment and other economic data seen in the past few months. The strong figure indicated that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to scale back its stimulus program, which has weighed on the value of the dollar.

USD/JPY rose to 103.75, the highest since January 23 before settling at 103.24, 0.18% higher for the day. For the week, the pair gained 1.81%.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3877, 0.12% higher for the day. Earlier in the session, the pair rose as high as 1.3915, the strongest level since late October 2011. For the week, the pair advanced 1.03%.

The euro’s strong gains came as expectations for further monetary easing by the European Central Bank dimmed after the bank refrained from tightening monetary policy at its meeting on Thursday, saying economic conditions did not support such a move.

ECB President Mario Draghi said the latest economic data indicated that the economic recovery in the euro zone is proceeding, and added that the bank was ready to take further action if needed.

A report from the ECB on Friday showed that banks in the euro area are set to repay a large portion of its emergency three-year loans next week.

The euro rose to two-month highs against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY hitting highs of 143.79, before settling at 143.29, up 0.30%.

Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar jumped higher against the Canadian dollar following an unexpectedly weak Canadian jobs report for February.

Statistics Canada reported that the economy unexpectedly shed 7,000 jobs last month, confounding expectations for jobs growth of 15,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.0%.

USD/CAD hit highs of 1.1101 and ended Friday’s session at 1.1085, 0.96% higher for the day.

In the week ahead, rate announcements by the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be in focus. The U.S. is to publish what will be closely watched data on retail sales and consumer sentiment.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 10

Japan is to release data on the current account, as well as revised data on fourth quarter economic growth.

In the euro zone, France is to produce data on industrial production.

Switzerland is to publish data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Tuesday, March 11

Australia is to produce private sector data on business confidence.

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its monetary policy statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

In the euro zone, Germany is to release data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

The U.K. is to publish data on manufacturing production. Meanwhile, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and several monetary policy committee members are to testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament's Treasury Committee.

Wednesday, March 12

Australia is to release private sector data on consumer sentiment, as well as official data on home loans.

Japan is to publish its BSI manufacturing index and a report on tertiary industry activity.

The U.K. is to produce data on the trade balance.

The euro zone is to release data on industrial production.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its monetary policy statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

Thursday, March 13

Japan is to publish data on core machinery orders. Elsewhere, China is to produce data on industrial production and fixed asset investment.

Australia is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate, as well as a private sector report on inflation expectations.

RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler is to testify before the Finance and Expenditure Select Committee, in Wellington.

The ECB is to publish its monthly bulletin, which looks at current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

The U.S. is to release data on retail sales and import prices, in addition to the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, March 14

The BoJ is to publish monetary policy meeting minutes, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s point of view.

Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer price inflation and preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

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