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Forex - Weekly outlook: June 13 - 17

Published 06/12/2016, 03:10 AM
Updated 06/12/2016, 03:39 PM
Forex - Weekly outlook: June 13 - 17
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Investing.com - The dollar ended the week sharply higher against the other major currencies on Friday despite diminished expectations for a summer rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.65% on Friday. The index ended the week with gains of 0.56%.

Markets have pushed back expectations on the timing of the next rate hike by the U.S. central bank after the dismal employment report for May, which showed that the economy added just 38,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase since September 2010.

The CME Group's Fed Watch tool indicated on Friday that there is a 1.9% chance the FOMC will raise rates in June. The probability of at least one rate hike in 2016 stood at 58.8%.

A speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Monday indicated that interest rates won’t rise until uncertainty over the economic outlook is resolved.

Yellen said she expects the economic recovery to continue but gave no indications on the timing of a next rate increase.

The Fed raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade in December.

Higher rates are positive for the dollar because they make the U.S. currency more attractive to yield-seeking investors.

USD/JPY was down 0.10% at 106.98 on Friday. The pair ended the week up 0.42%.

EUR/USD ended the trading day at 1.1251 on Friday, down 0.57% for the day, bringing the week’s losses to 1.02%.

Sterling was sharply lower, with GBP/USD tumbling 1.39% on Friday at 1.4258. The pair ended the week down 1.8% amid ongoing uncertainty over whether Britain will remain in the European Union or not at a referendum on June 23.

The commodity linked currencies were broadly lower.

AUD/USD was down 0.79% at 0.7372, NZD/USD fell 0.65% to 0.7059 and USD/CAD gained 0.50% to trade at 1.2785 late Friday.

In the week ahead, investors will be turning their attention to Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Fed for clues on the future direction of U.S. interest rates.

Monetary policy meetings in Japan, Switzerland and the U.K. will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 13

Australian financial markets will be closed for a holiday.

Tuesday, June 14

Australia is to publish private sector data on business confidence.

The U.K. is to produce a report on consumer price inflation.

The U.S. is to release figures on retail sales and import prices.

Wednesday, June 15

The U.K. is to release the monthly employment report.

Canada is to publish data on manufacturing sales.

The U.S. is to release reports on producer prices, industrial production and manufacturing activity in the New York region.

The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement and economic projections at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

Thursday, June 16

New Zealand is to publish data on first quarter economic growth.

Australia is to release its monthly jobs report.

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The Swiss National Bank is also to its next monetary policy review. The Libor rate announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

The U.K. is to publish data on retail sales.

The euro zone is to produce revised data on inflation.

The Bank of England is to announce its latest monetary policy decision at the conclusion of its monthly meeting.

The U.S. is to release reports on consumer prices, initial jobless claims and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, June 17

Canada is to release its latest inflation report.

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on building permits and housing starts.

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