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Forex - Weekly outlook: January 4 - 8

Published 01/03/2016, 07:18 AM
Updated 01/03/2016, 03:18 PM
© Reuters.  Dollar index gains almost 9% in 2015
DX
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Investing.com - The dollar traded higher on the last day of the year on Thursday, at the end of a year which saw the greenback post gains of almost 9% against the other major currencies, boosted by the diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve and other world central banks.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose to a more than one-week high of 98.75 on Thursday. The index ended the month down 1.46%, the first monthly decline since August, but ended the year with gains of 8.96%.

A key factor in the dollar’s gains in 2015 was the belief that the start of a rate hike cycle by the Fed in conjunction with continuing loose monetary policy from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan would continue to underpin investor demand for the greenback.

Higher interest rates make the dollar more attractive to yield-seeking investors.

The Fed hiked U.S. interest rates for the first time in almost a decade last month and further rate increases are expected in 2016.

The euro fell to a one-week low of 1.0852 against the dollar on Thursday and the single currency ended the year down more than 10%, its second straight annual decline.

The dollar hit two-month lows against the yen, falling to 119.99. For the year the dollar edged up 0.4% against the yen, its fourth consecutive yearly gain against the Japanese currency.

The dollar was last at 0.9993 against the Swiss franc after earlier rising to a three-week high of 1.0019. The dollar ended the year with gains of 0.7% against the franc, the second successive yearly gain.

The commodity linked currencies ended 2015 sharply lower on the back of steep falls in commodity prices.

The Australian dollar ended the year down 11% against the greenback, the third year of losses, while the New Zealand dollar lost 12%. The Canadian dollar was down 16%, its second worst year on record after falling 18.6% in 2008.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. jobs report for December, as well as reports on U.S. manufacturing and service sector activity. Tuesday’s euro zone inflation report will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 4

China is to publish its Caixin manufacturing index.

In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation.

The U.K. is to release survey data on manufacturing sector activity.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, January 5

Germany and Spain are to release data on the change in the number of people employed. The wider euro zone is to publish preliminary data on consumer inflation.

The U.K. is to release data on construction sector activity.

Wednesday, January 6

China is to publish its Caixin services index.

The U.K. is to release survey data on service sector activity.

Both the U.S. and Canada are to release data on the trade balance.

The U.S. is also to release the monthly ADP nonfarm payrolls report, the ISM report on service sector growth and data on factory orders. Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its December meeting.

Thursday, January 7

Australia is to release reports on building approvals and the trade balance.

Germany is to publish data on factory orders and retail sales. The wider euro area is to report on the unemployment rate.

The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves. This data is closely scrutinized for indications of the size of the bank’s operations in currency markets.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak at an event in Ottawa.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, January 8

Australia is to publish data on retail sales.

The U.K. is to report on the trade balance.

Canada is to publish its monthly employment report along with data on building permits.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report.

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