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Forex - Weekly outlook: February 27 - March 3

Published 02/26/2017, 06:41 AM
© Reuters.  Dollar ticks higher with Trump speech ahead
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Investing.com - The dollar ticked higher against a basket of the other major currencies on Friday, shrugging off disappointing U.S. home sales data as investors looked ahead to an upcoming speech by President Donald Trump.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.17% to 100.12 late Friday, leaving it up just 0.14% for the week after recovering from a one-week low of 100.64 earlier.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. new home sales rose 3.7% to an annual rate of 555,000 units last month, falling short of forecasts for a 6.3% increase to a 570,000-unit rate.

The euro ticked lower against the dollar, with EUR/USD down 0.19% to 1.0556. The euro ended the week down 0.6% against the dollar, its third straight weekly decline.

Sterling was also weaker against the dollar, with GBP/USD falling 0.76% to 1.2461.

But the dollar fell to two-week lows against the safe-haven yen amid growing doubts over the likelihood of swift tax reform from the Trump administration.

USD/JPY was down 0.4% to 112.08, the weakest level since February 9 and ended the week 0.67% lower, its second weekly loss.

On Thursday U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he wants to see "very significant" tax reform passed before Congress' August recess, but indicated that much work was still needed.

Meanwhile, Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s February meeting said it may be appropriate to raise rates again "fairly soon" if jobs and inflation data continues in line with current expectations.

But the minutes also noted uncertainty over a lack of clarity on Trump's economic policies and pointed to the risks to the growth outlook from the stronger dollar.

In the week ahead, global financial markets will focus on Trump's address to Congress on Tuesday for further details on his promises of tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending.

The week is also peppered with a handful of Fed appearances, most importantly Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Friday.

Investors will also be watching a revised reading of fourth-quarter U.S. growth to gauge the strength of the economy. Private sector survey data from the UK and euro zone inflation data will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 27

The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders and pending home sales.

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan is to speak at an event in Oklahoma.

Tuesday, February 28

New Zealand is to release trade data and a report on business confidence.

The U.S. is to release revised data on fourth quarter growth and a report on consumer confidence.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard are to speak.

Also Tuesday, President Donald Trump will make his first major address to Congress.

Wednesday, March 1

Australia is to release data on fourth quarter growth.

China is to release official data on manufacturing and service sector activity as well as the Caixin manufacturing index.

In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary inflation data and a report on unemployment change.

The U.K. is to release its manufacturing index and a report on bank lending.

The Bank of Canada is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The Institute of Supply Management is to report on manufacturing activity.

Dallas Fed head Kaplan and Fed Governor Lael Brainard are scheduled to speak.

Thursday, March 2

Australia is to produce data on building approvals and trade.

The U.K. is to report on construction sector output.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on inflation.

Canada is to release its monthly report on GDP.

The U.S. is to report on initial jobless claims and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester is to speak.

Friday, March 3

Japan is to release data on inflation and household spending.

Germany is to publish figures on retail sales.

The U.K. is to report on service sector activity.

The ISM is to report on service sector activity.

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will deliver remarks and Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Chicago.

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