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Forex - Weekly outlook: February 16 - 20

Published 02/15/2015, 06:13 AM
Updated 02/15/2015, 01:13 PM
© Reuters.  Dollars slips after soft U.S. data clouds economic outlook
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Investing.com - The dollar slid against the yen on Friday after weak data on U.S. consumer sentiment coming on the heels of other soft economic reports saw investors reassess expectations for a mid-year rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

The drop in the dollar came after data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in February.

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 93.6, down from January’s final reading of 98.1. Economists had forecast an unchanged figure.

The report came a day after data showing that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.8% last month after dropping 0.9% in December, indicating that consumer spending remained sluggish at the start of the year.

The weak data prompted investors to trim back long positions in the greenback ahead of a three-day holiday weekend.

USD/JPY was down 0.31% to 118.73 in late trade, off Wednesday’s five-week highs of 120.47.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was little changed at 94.24 late Friday to end the week down 0.5%.

The euro edged lower, with EUR/USD dipping 0.10% to 1.1391, but the pair ended the week up 0.73%, its third consecutively weekly gain.

The euro found support after data on Friday showed that Germany’s economy, the euro zones largest, grew 0.7% in the fourth quarter, more than double the 0.3% forecast by economists.

The euro zone economy expanded by a larger-than-expected 0.3% in the three months to December, but Greece’s economy contracted 0.2% in the same period.

Meanwhile, officials from Greece and the European Union were due to hold fresh talks on Monday after talks on a new debt deal last week ended without an agreement.

Greece’s current €240 billion bailout is due to expire on February 28 and the new Greek government does not want it extended, fuelling fears over a conflict with its creditors which could trigger the country’s exit from the euro zone.

In the coming week, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting for further indications on when the Fed may start to hike interest rates.

Wednesday’s policy announcement by the Bank of Japan and Friday’s data on euro zone private sector activity will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 16

Japan is to release preliminary data on fourth quarter economic growth.

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Presidents Day holiday.

Tuesday, February 17

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

The U.K. is to release data on consumer price inflation.

In the euro zone, the ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment.

Canada is to release data on foreign securities purchases.

The U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in New York State as well as a private sector survey of home builders.

Wednesday, February 18

Markets in China are to remain closed for a national holiday.

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The bank will hold a press conference following the announcement.

The U.K. is to publish its latest employment report, which includes a look at the unemployment rate, the change in the number of people employed and average earnings.

At the same time, the Bank of England is to publish the minutes of its January meeting.

Later Wednesday, Canada is to release data on wholesale sales.

The U.S. is to release a string of economic reports, including data on producer prices, housing starts, building permits and industrial production. Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its January meeting.

Thursday, February 19

Japan is to release data on the trade balance.

Markets in China are to remain closed for a national holiday.

Switzerland is to release a report on the trade balance.

The European Central Bank is to publish the minutes of its January meeting.

The U.K. is to produce private sector data on industrial order expectations.

The U.S. is to publish a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region and the weekly government figures on initial jobless claims.

Friday, February 20

Markets in China are to remain closed for a national holiday.

The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on private sector activity, while Germany and France are to also to publish data on private sector growth.

The U.K. is to release data on retail sales, as well as a report on public sector borrowing.

Later in the day, Canada is to produce data on retail sales.

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on manufacturing activity.


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