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Forex - Weekly outlook: December 28 - January 1

Published 12/27/2015, 04:56 AM
Updated 12/27/2015, 03:56 PM
© Reuters.  Dollar retreats against euro, yen
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar drifted lower against the euro and yen in a shortened trading day for the Christmas holiday on Thursday, though losses were limited as traders were hesitant to make significant moves ahead of the year-end.

Global financial markets closed early on Thursday, Christmas Eve, and remained shut for Christmas Day on Friday.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, settled at 98.02 by close of trade, down 0.72% for the week.

The index fell to a more than one-week low of 97.94 earlier Thursday, as investors booked profits on their bullish dollar bets following the Federal Reserve's widely-anticipated interest rate hike last week.

The dollar slid 1% against the euro on the week, with EUR/USD closing at 1.0963. Against the yen, the greenback dipped 0.66% for the week to end at 120.28 (USD/JPY), a level not seen since November 2.

With the first U.S. rate hike since 2006 out of the way, the focus is now on the pace of future rate increases. The Fed, from its forecasts, is anticipating four rate hikes next year. However, the Fed funds futures currently suggests there will be just two rate increases, one in June and one in December.

Mixed U.S. economic reports released throughout the week failed to offer clues as to how fast the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates next year.

Data on Tuesday showed that the U.S. economy grew 2.0% in the third quarter, downwardly revised from a preliminary estimate of 2.1%, but above expectations for 1.9%.

That was followed by data on Wednesday showing orders for U.S. core capital goods, a key barometer of private-sector business investment, declined 0.4% last month, while shipments of core capital goods, a category used to calculate quarterly economic growth, slumped 0.5%.

However, separate reports revealed that initial jobless claims fell more than expected last week, personal spending rose for the eighth straight month in November, while consumer sentiment improved to a five-month high in December.

Elsewhere, U.S. oil prices rallied for the fourth straight session on Thursday, taking its gains for the week to 10%, as an unexpected decline in domestic oil stockpiles boosted sentiment.

Heading into the final week of the year, trading volumes are expected to remain light as many traders already closed books due to the holiday period, reducing liquidity in the market and increasing volatility.

The U.S. is to release key reports on consumer confidence, pending home sales and jobless claims, as market players look for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future path of U.S. rate hikes.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 28

Japan is to release data on retail sales.

Markets in Australia, New Zealand, the U.K. and Canada will remain closed in observance of Boxing Day.

Tuesday, December 29

The U.S. is to release a report on consumer confidence as well as data on the trade balance.

Wednesday, December 30

In the euro zone, Spain is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation, while the European Central Bank will publish data on private lending and the money supply.

The U.S. is to publish private sector data on pending home sales as well as the weekly government report on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, December 31

Markets in Japan and Germany will remain closed for New Year’s Eve.

The U.S. is to produce weekly data on initial jobless claims as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.

Friday, January 1

China is to publish government data on manufacturing activity for December.

Meanwhile, markets in China, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Switzerland, the U.K., Canada and the U.S. will remain closed for the New Year’s holiday.

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