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Forex - Weekly outlook: April 6 - 11

Published 04/05/2015, 06:22 AM
© Reuters. Dollar turns sharply lower after surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report
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Investing.com - The dollar turned sharply lower against the other major currencies on Friday after an unexpectedly weak U.S. jobs report saw investors push back expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve to the end of the year from midyear.

The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 126,000 new jobs in March, less than half of February’s gain and the smallest increase since December 2013. Economists had forecast jobs growth of 245,000 last month.

February’s figure was revised down to 264,000 from 295,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at a six-and-a-half year lows of 5.5%, in line with forecasts.

The surprisingly weak report added to concerns over the outlook for economic growth after other recent economic data pointed to a slowdown at the start of the year.

A slowing labor market could prompt Fed officials to reconsider a planned increase in interest rates. Last month the Fed indicated that the first rate increase could come as soon as June, but added that continued improvement in labor markets would be a key factor it would consider.

EUR/USD was at one-week highs of 1.0970 late Friday, 0.83% higher for the day.

USD/JPY fell to 118.95 in late trade, a drop of 0.63% for the day, while USD/CHF fell to a five-week trough of 0.9515.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies fell 0.95% to 96.84.

The drop in the dollar was exacerbated by thin trading conditions due to the Easter holiday weekend. Most markets in Europe were closed and U.S markets traded for shortened hours.

In the week ahead, markets outside the U.S. will remain closed on Monday. The U.S. is to release what will be closely watched data on service sector activity on Monday and the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its March meeting on Wednesday.

Central bank meetings in Australia and Japan will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 6

Markets in Australia, New Zealand, China, Europe and the U.K. will remain closed for holidays.

In the euro zone, Spain is to release its monthly unemployment report.

Later in the day, Canada is to publish its Ivey PMI.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on service sector activity.

Tuesday, April 7

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

Australia is also to release data on retail sales.

The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on its foreign currency reserves. This data is closely scrutinized for indications of the size of the bank’s operations in currency markets.

The euro zone is to release revised data on service sector activity.

The U.K. is to release its services PMI.

Wednesday, April 8

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement. There will be a closely watched press conference following the rate announcement.

Japan is also to produce data on the current account.

The euro area is to publish data on retail sales, while Germany is to release data on factory orders. Elsewhere in Europe, Switzerland is to report on consumer price inflation.

Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its March meeting.

Thursday, April 9

The U.K. is to release data on the trade balance.

Later in the day, the Bank of England is to announce its benchmark interest rate.

Canada is to publish a report on building permits.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, April 10

Australia is to release data on home loans.

China is to publish figures on both consumer and producer price inflation.

The U.K. is to release data on industrial and manufacturing production.

Canada is to release its monthly employment report.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on import prices.

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