Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: September 27- October 1

Published 09/26/2010, 07:32 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com – Last week saw the U.S. dollar move lower against the yen but a sudden and short-lived tumble by the yen on Friday sparked speculation of fresh intervention by Japanese authorities.

USD/JPY hit 85.38 on Friday, a 3-day high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 84.20 by close of trade on Friday, having shed 1.51% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 83.50, the low of September 13 and resistance at 85.38, Friday's high.

On Friday, the yen tumbled 1% against the U.S. dollar before rebounding inside the space of 10 minutes. The move sparked speculation the Japanese authorities had once again intervened in the currency market but government officials declined to comment on the price move.

Also Friday, Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that Japan's government remained determined to prevent further appreciation of the country's currency.

Mr. Maehara said, "Any further appreciation of the yen should be stopped." He added that "Going forward, there may be a possibility for the Japanese government to show its very determined intent to keep the currency from strengthening."

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims as well as data on unemployment, consumer confidence and manufacturing. The country is also to release final GDP data while Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke is to speak at two public engagements.

Meanwhile, Japan is to publish data on its manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors as well as data on inflation, housing, consumer spending and retail sales. Also the Governor of the Bank of Japan is to speak at a public engagement.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect USD/JPY.

Monday, September 27

The Governor of the Bank of Japan Masaaki Shirakawa is to give a speech, which will be closely watched for any hints about further Japanese intervention in currency markets.

Tuesday, September 28

The U.S. is to publish data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 70% of all economic activity. The country is also due to release industry data on house prices as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Richmond area.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will publish its Tankan Large Manufacturers Index, a measure of business conditions in Japan's manufacturing sector. The central bank will also publish data on business conditions for large businesses outside of the manufacturing sector, in its Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index.

Wednesday, September 29

In the U.S., President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren is due to speak on the nation’s economy. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy. The country is also to produce data on crude oil inventories.

Meanwhile, Japan is to publish key data on retail sales as well as preliminary data on industrial production. Meanwhile, Japan will also publish its manufacturing purchasing managers' index, a leading indicator of economic health.

Thursday, September 30

The U.S. is to release final data on its gross domestic product, the leading indicator of economic growth. The country is also due to produce key data on initial jobless claims and manufacturing activity in Chicago.

Later in the day, Federal Reserve Chairmen Ben Bernanke is expected to deliver a speech on the U.S. economy. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Elsewhere, Japan is to release official data on its unemployment rate. The country is also due to produce key data on household spending, housing starts and consumer price inflation for both Japan and the Tokyo area.  

Friday, October 1

The U.S. is to end the week by producing key data on personal spending and income, while the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. The country is also to release official data on manufacturing conditions, total vehicle sales and construction spending.


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