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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: September 2 - 6

Published 09/01/2013, 06:18 AM
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EUR/JPY
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Investing.com - The dollar slipped lower against the traditional safe haven yen on Friday as concerns over a possible U.S. military intervention in Syria fuelled widespread risk aversion.

USD/JPY fell to lows of 97.87 on Friday, before paring back some losses to settle at 98.16, down 0.22% for the day and ending the week 0.15% lower.

The pair is likely to find support at 97.44, Friday’s low and resistance at 98.83, the high of August 26.

Concerns over a possible military strike mounted after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Friday that the U.S. would punish Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for a "brutal and flagrant" chemical weapons attack that killed nearly 1,500 people in Damascus.

Meanwhile, data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer sentiment was lower in August, pulling back from July’s six-year high. The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index slipped to 82.1 from a final reading of 85.1 in July.

The report came one day after official data showed that U.S. second quarter growth was revised sharply higher, indicating that the economic recovery is on track.

The Commerce Department said gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 2.5% in the three months to June, above expectations for growth of 2.2% and up from a preliminary estimate of 1.7%.

The upbeat data reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve could start phasing out stimulus measures as soon as next month.

EUR/JPY fell to lows of 129.31 on Friday, the lowest since August 20 before paring back some losses to settle at 129.73, 0.33% lower for the day and extending the week’s losses to 1.33%.

The euro came under pressure after official data showed the number of unemployed people in the euro zone fell by 15,000 in July, but the unemployment rate remained unchanged at a record high 12.1%.

In the week ahead, markets in the U.S. are to remain closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. Investors will be closely watching Friday’s key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, amid ongoing speculation over when the Fed will start to unwind stimulus measures.

The outcome of Thursday’s Bank of Japan policy meeting will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 2

Japan is to release data on capital spending.

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Labor Day holiday.

Tuesday, September 3

Japan is to publish data on average cash earnings, which is closely linked to consumer spending.

Later in the day, the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity in the U.S., a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, September 4

The U.S. is to release data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

Thursday, September 5

The BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The rate announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report on private sector job creation, as well as the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Later Thursday, the ISM is to release data on non-manufacturing activity in the U.S., a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, September 6

The U.S. is to round up the week with closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, as well as data on average hourly earnings.




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