Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: September 10 - 14

Published 09/09/2012, 05:42 AM
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar tumbled to a one-month low against the yen on Friday, after weaker-than-forecast U.S. employment data underlined expectations that the Federal Reserve will embark on a third round of quantitative easing measures.

USD/JPY hit 78.00 on Friday; the pair’s lowest since August 1; the pair subsequently consolidated at 78.24 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.11% on the week.

The pair is likely to find near-term support at 77.90, the low of August 1 and resistance at 78.73, the high of August 30.

The dollar weakened broadly after the Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 96,000 jobs in August, well below expectations for 125,000, following a downwardly revised 141,000 in July.

The smaller-than-expected increase in job creation increased the chances that the U.S. central bank will implement further stimulus measures to strengthen the U.S. economic recovery, ahead of its upcoming policy meeting.

The U.S. jobs data came one day after the European Central Bank announced details of its bond purchasing program aimed at stemming the debt crisis in the euro zone, dubbed Outright Monetary Transactions.

Speaking at the bank’s post-policy meeting press conference on Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi said the plan would provide "a fully effective backstop" against market volatility.

Under the terms of the plan, the ECB would buy unlimited amounts of government bonds of up to three years in maturity, as long as the country in question is signed up to the OMT program and agrees to economic reforms in return for assistance.

The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds settled at 5.63% on Friday, falling below the 6% level for the first time since May, while the yield on Italian 10-year bonds fell to 5.05% by the close on Friday.

The yen fell to a nine-week low against the euro on Friday, on the back of reduced demand for safe haven assets, with EUR/JPY settling at 100.26.

In the coming week, investors will be focusing on the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Thursday, amid ongoing speculation over how close policymakers are to implementing more stimulus measures.

Market participants will also be eyeing Wednesday’s German court ruling on the constitutionality of the European Stability Mechanism.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 10

Japan is to release government data on the current account as well as final data on second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health.

Tuesday, September 11

Japan is to produce government data on manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services.

Wednesday, September 12

Japan is to publish government data on core machinery orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as on tertiary industry activity, a key gauge of economic health.

In the euro zone, the German Federal Constitutional Court is to announce a ruling regarding the constitutionality of the European Stability Mechanism.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to release official data on import prices, followed by a government report on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, September 13

The U.S. is to publish government data on producer price inflation, as well as a weekly report on initial jobless claims.

The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate; the announcement is to be accompanied by the bank’s rate statement, which contains insights into current economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Friday, September 14

The U.S. is to round up the week with official reports on consumer price inflation, retail sales and business inventories. The Federal Reserve is also to release data on the capacity utilization rate and industrial production, while the University of Michigan is to produce preliminary reports on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.



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