Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: October 8 - 12

Published 10/07/2012, 06:18 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar ended the week at a more than two-week low against the yen on Friday, after better-than-expected U.S. employment data spurred risk appetite and curbed demand for the traditional safe-haven yen.

USD/JPY hit 78.86 on Friday, the pair's highest since September 19; the pair subsequently consolidated at 78.65 by close of trade, 0.87% higher on the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 78.11, Wednesday's low and near-term resistance at 79.02, the high of September 6.

The U.S. Department of Labor said the economy added 114,000 jobs in September, pushing the unemployment rate down to 7.8% from 8.1% the previous month, the lowest level since January 2009.

The report came after upbeat U.S. data on manufacturing and services earlier in the week and fuelled hopes that the economic recovery may be gaining momentum.

On Wednesday, the Institute of Supply Management said its services purchasing managers' index rose to 55.1 in September from a reading of 53.7 in August.  

Analysts had expected the index to decline to 53.2 in September.

Data produced by the ISM on Monday showed that U.S. manufacturing activity expanded in September for the first time in four months.

The yen had strengthened against the dollar Friday after the Bank of Japan announced no changes to monetary policy at the conclusion of its policy setting meeting, disappointing some market expectations for more easing measures.

Expectations for further easing measures were fuelled by economy minister Seiji Maehara's decision to attend the meeting. Maehara has repeatedly called for the BoJ to employ easing measures to reach its 1% inflation target.

Overall market sentiment continued to be overshadowed by speculation over whether Spain will request a bailout.

On Tuesday, Spainish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy downplayed the possibility that Madrid would request a full-scale sovereign bailout, saying it was not certain that the country would ask for external financial assistance.

In the week ahead, market participants will be closely watching the outcome of a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Tuesday, where a possible bailout for Spain is expected to be on the agenda.

Meanwhile, markets in Japan and the U.S. are to remain closed for holidays on Monday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 8

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a national holiday.

Also Monday, markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Columbus Day holiday.

Tuesday, October 9

Japan is to publish official data on the current account, which is linked to currency demand.

Wednesday, October 10

The U.S. Federal Reserve is to publish its Beige Book, which outlines current economic conditions.

Thursday, October 11

Japan is to publish official data on machinery orders, a leading indicator of production. In addition, the BoJ is to publish the minutes of its most recent monetary policy meeting, which contain insights into current economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

The U.S. is also to publish government data on the trade balance, in addition to official data on initial jobless claims, import prices and crude oil stockpiles.

Also Thursday, finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 group of industrialized nations are due to hold talks in Tokyo.

Friday, October 12

Japan is to publish official data on tertiary industry activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation. In addition, the University of Michigan is to release preliminary data on consumer sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.



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