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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: October 7 - 11

Published 10/06/2013, 06:16 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com - The dollar recovered from five-week lows against the yen on Friday, as investors took profits following the yen’s recent gains, but sentiment on the greenback remained fragile as ongoing concerns over political deadlock in the U.S. weighed.

USD/JPY ended Friday’s session at 97.46, up 0.21% for the day, after falling as low as 96.92 on Thursday. Still, for the week, the pair ended down 0.93%.

The pair is likely to find support at 96.11, the low of August 9 and resistance at 98.07, Wednesday’s high.

The dollar looked likely to remain under pressure amid concerns that the first U.S. government shutdown for 17 years would derail the fragile economic recovery and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain its stimulus program for longer.

Markets were also mulling over how the political impasse in Washington will impact on negotiations to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, which the U.S. Treasury Department has estimated will be reached by October 17.

House Republican Leader John Boehner said Friday the House will not vote on a budget bill without conditions and demanded spending cuts in exchange for raising the government's borrowing limit.

The shutdown meant that Friday’s scheduled release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for September was postponed and no new date was given for the release of the data.

The Bank of Japan announced no changes to monetary policy at the conclusion of its monthly meeting on Friday, in a widely expected decision.

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned that the U.S. budget deadlock and fears over the threat of a possible U.S. default could destabilize financial markets.

In the week ahead, investors will continue to closely monitor political developments in Washington.

Delays in U.S. economic data releases look likely to fuel uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will hold off on any move to roll back its USD85 billion a month asset purchase program.

Elsewhere, the BoJ is slated to publish monetary policy meeting minutes.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of this and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, Tuesday and Friday, as there are no relevant events on these days.

Wednesday, October 9

The BoJ is to release monetary policy meeting minutes, which provide insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective. Japan is also to produce data on preliminary machine tool orders.

Thursday, October 10

Japan is to release data on core machinery orders, a leading indicator of production, in addition to a report on tertiary activity.



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