Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: October 29 - November 2

Published 10/28/2012, 06:42 AM
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar came off a four-month high against the yen on Friday, trimming some of the week’s gains as uncertainty over Spain and Greece overshadowed better-than-forecast U.S. data on third quarter gross domestic product.

USD/JPY hit 80.37 on Friday, the pair’s highest since June 25; the pair subsequently consolidated at 79.62 by close of trade, still up 0.43% for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 79.20, the low of October 22 and resistance at 80.37, Friday’s high.

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew by a better-than-forecast 2% in the three months to September, on the back of stronger consumer spending, after expanding by 1.3% in the preceding quarter. Economists had predicted growth of 1.9%.

Separately, the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index ticked down to 82.6 for October, from the initial reading of 83.1, which was the highest since September 2007.

But demand for the traditional safe haven yen found support amid ongoing uncertainty over when Spain will request a bailout and doubts over whether Greece will meet austerity targets.

Worries over the fiscal and economic outlook for Spain mounted Friday after official data showed that the country’s unemployment rate jumped to a record 25.02% in the third quarter.

The euro weakened against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY dropping 0.78% to settle at 103.03.

The single currency remained somewhat supported after European Union Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said the first round of disbursements to troubled Spanish banks will occur on schedule in November.

The yen weakened against the dollar and the euro earlier in the week amid mounting expectations that the Bank of Japan will ease monetary policy further at its upcoming policy meeting on October 30.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcome of Tuesday’s BoJ policy meeting.

Market participants will also be awaiting Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls data after the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.8% in September from 8.1% the previous month.

In addition, investors will be awaiting any indication that Spain is growing closer to requesting a bailout from its euro zone partners.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 29

Japan is to publish official data on retail sales, the leading measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Later Monday, the U.S. is to release government data on personal income, personal spending and core consumer inflation.

Tuesday, October 30

The BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The rate announcement is to be accompanied by the bank’s rate statement, which contains important insights into current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective. The central bank is to hold a press conference to discuss the monetary policy decision after the rate announcement.

Japan is also to publish official data on household spending, as well as a preliminary report on industrial production.

The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as industry data on house price inflation, an important indicator of demand in the housing sector.

Wednesday, October 31

In the U.S., payroll processing firm ADP is to release a report on nonfarm payrolls, a leading indicator of private sector job creation. The U.S. is also to publish official data on manufacturing activity in Chicago, as well as data on employment costs and crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, November 1

The U.S. is to release private sector data on nonfarm payrolls, an important indicator of job creation. The U.S. is also to publish its weekly government report on initial jobless claims, as well as official data on nonfarm productivity and labor costs, important inflationary indicators.

In addition, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish data on U.S. manufacturing activity.

Friday, November 2

Japan is to publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, which contain important insights into current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls, a leading indicator of job creation in the economy, as well as data on the unemployment rate.

The U.S. is also to publish official data on average earnings and factory orders.



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