Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: October 18-22

Published 10/17/2010, 08:57 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com – Last week saw the U.S. dollar rebound from a fresh 15-year low against the yen on Friday, after circumspect remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on the outlook for further monetary easing.

USD/JPY hit 80.87 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since April 20, 1995; the pair subsequently consolidated at 81.45 by close of trade, shedding 0.58% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 79.75, the low of April 19, 1995 and resistance at 83.02, the high of October 7.

During a speech in Boston, Bernanke said there was a case for further monetary easing, given ongoing high unemployment and low inflation but added that officials "will take account of the potential costs and risks" of further easing. He also said that any action would be "contingent on incoming information about the economic outlook and financial conditions."

Also Friday, Japan's finance minister Yoshihiko Noda kept the possibility of intervention on the table, saying his government would take "decisive" steps if necessary. However on Thursday Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda acknowledged that the yen’s sharp gains were due to the dollar’s broader weakness.

Next week, the U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims, as well as important data on building permits, housing starts, manufacturing activity and foreign investment while the Federal Reserve is to publish its Beige Book.

Meanwhile, Japan is to publish its all industries activity index.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect USD/JPY.

Monday, October 18


The U.S. will being the week by publishing official data on the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreigners. The country is also to release official data on the capacity utilization rate as well as data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, October 19

The U.S. is to publish official data on building permits and housing starts, both leading indicators of health in the housing sector.

Wednesday, October 20

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is to release its Beige Book, a summary of the data the bank examines before setting the benchmark interest rate. The U.S. is also set to produce data on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, October 21

The U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims, while the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is due to release a report on the city’s manufacturing sector. The country is also due to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

Also Thursday, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, James Bullard is to speak at a public engagement. His comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Japan is to publish its all industries activity index, which details the change in the total value of goods and services purchased by businesses. This is an important indicator of overall economic health.

Friday, October 22


The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Thomas Hoenig is to speak at a public engagement. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

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