Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: October 15 - 19

Published 10/14/2012, 06:45 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar was up against the yen on Friday, but was lower for the week, as uncertainty over Spain’s stance on formally requesting a bailout from its euro zone partners supported demand for the traditional safe haven yen.

USD/JPY hit 77.93 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since October 1; the pair subsequently consolidated at 78.43 by close of trade on Friday, 0.26% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 77.93, Thursday’s low and resistance at 78.75, the high of October 8.

The yen was lower against the dollar and the euro on Friday amid speculation that Spain was moving closer to requesting fiscal aid following a downgrade by ratings agency Standard & Poor’s.

A bailout request by Madrid would trigger the European Central Bank’s bond purchasing program, aimed at lowering borrowing costs for struggling euro zone states.

The dollar was boosted after official data showed that U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in five years in October and a separate report showing that producer price inflation rose more-than-forecast in September.

The University of Michigan said that its consumer sentiment index rose to a seasonally adjusted 83.1 from 78.3 in September, the highest level since September 2007.

The data came one day after the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits fell by 30,000 to a seasonally adjusted 339,000 in the previous week, compared to expectations for an increase of 1,000.

However, as the figures were released a spokesman for the Labor Department said one large state had not reported additional quarterly figures, accounting for a significant part of the steep decline in claims.

The yen remained under pressure after Thursday’s minutes of the Bank of Japan’s September meeting indicated that some policymakers were leaning towards more aggressive easing measures, boosting expectations that the central bank may ease policy again later this month.

The BoJ increased the size of its asset purchase program by JPY10 trillion last month.

Meanwhile, official data showed that machinery orders fell for the first time in three months in August, underlining concerns over Japan’s fragile economic recovery.

On Friday, Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda told International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde that the strong yen is threatening to damage the nation's economic recovery at the annual IMF meeting in Tokyo.

In the week ahead, markets will continue to continue to focus on whether Spain will formally request a bailout and if international creditors will extend loans to Greece as the country struggles to meet deficit reduction targets.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to release a flurry of data, including reports on retail sales, manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia, initial jobless claims and housing starts, among others.
 
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 15

The U.S. is to produce official data on retail sales, the primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity. In addition, the U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in New York state, as well as official data on business inventories.

Tuesday, October 16

The U.S. is to release government data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation, as well as official data on industrial production. The U.S. is also to produce official data on treasury long-term purchases and the capacity utilization rate.

Wednesday, October 17

The U.S. is to publish government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts, a leading indicator of economic health. The U.S. is also to produce official data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, October 18

The U.S. is to publish weekly government data on initial jobless claims, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia, a leading indicator of economic strength.

Friday, October 19

The U.S. is to round up the week with industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.



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