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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: Oct 28 - Nov 1

Published 10/27/2013, 07:11 AM
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Investing.com - The yen finished the week higher against the dollar for the second consecutive week on Friday, as soft U.S. economic data added to the view that the Federal Reserve will maintain its stimulus program into next year.

USD/JPY ended Friday’s session at 97.37, 0.12% higher for the day, after falling to 96.95 the lowest since October 9 earlier. The pair ended the week down 0.82%.

The pair is likely to find support at 96.66, the low of October 7 and resistance at 98.00.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. core durable goods orders unexpectedly fell 0.1% in September, the third consecutively decline. A separate report showed that the University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index was revised lower in October.

The data cemented expectations that the U.S. central bank will maintain the current pace of its asset purchase program into early next year.

Data released earlier in the week showing that U.S. jobs growth had slowed in September, even before the start of the 16-day government shutdown, prompted investors to re-evaluate expectations over the timing of a possible reduction to the Fed’s stimulus program.

The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 148,000 jobs last month, well below expectations for an increase of 180,000.

Elsewhere, the yen was slightly lower against the stronger euro on Friday, with EUR/JPY edging up 0.15% to settle at 134.46. The pair ended the week with gains of 0.15%.

Demand for the euro continued to be underpinned despite a report showing that the German Ifo business confidence index unexpectedly fell for the first time in six months in October.

The report came one day after data on euro zone manufacturing and service sector activity indicated that the recovery in the region remains sluggish.

In the week ahead, investors will be focused on the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy setting meeting. The central bank is expected to keep its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program on track.

Thursday’s monetary policy statement by the Bank of Japan will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 28

The U.S. is to produce reports on industrial production and the capacity utilization rate, as well as private sector data on pending home sales.

Tuesday, October 29

Japan is to release data on household spending and retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. 

The U.S. is also to produce data on retail sales, as well as reports on producer price inflation and consumer confidence.

Wednesday, October 30

Japan is to publish preliminary data on industrial production.

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on nonfarm payrolls and official data on consumer price inflation.

Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement. The statement is to be followed by a closely watched press conference with Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Thursday, October 31

The BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be accompanied by the bank’s monetary policy statement, which contains important insights into the economic outlook. The BoJ is to hold a press conference after the rate announcement. Japan is also to release data on average cash earnings.

The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims and a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.

Friday, November 1

The U.S. is to round up the week with a report from the Institute of Supply Management on manufacturing activity.




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