Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: November 4 - 9

Published 11/04/2012, 05:09 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar hit a six-month high against the yen on Friday, as better-than-forecast U.S. employment data and fresh easing measures by the Bank of Japan bolstered demand for the greenback.

USD/JPY hit 80.66 on Friday, the pair’s highest since April 27; the pair subsequently consolidated at 80.41 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.98% for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 79.51, the low of October 31 and resistance at 80.66, Friday’s high and a six-month high.

The U.S. Department of Labor said the economy added 171,000 jobs in October, beating forecasts for an increase of 125,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9% from 7.8% in September as more people re-entered the labor force.

The stronger-than- expected data saw investor’s trim back expectations for another round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, bolstering demand for the greenback.

The dollar also found support amid uncertainty over the outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential elections, with opinion polls indicating a dead heat between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

Investors are concerned over the U.S. fiscal cliff, approximately USD600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1, which could threaten U.S. and global growth.

The dollar fell to a one-week low against the yen on Tuesday, after easing steps announced by the BoJ initially disappointed market expectations for more aggressive measures.

The BoJ increased the size of its asset purchase program by JPY11 trillion amid growing concerns over the deteriorating economic outlook and mounting political pressure to step up measures to combat deflation.

In the coming week, investors will be anticipating the outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential elections and looking ahead to policy meetings by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday.

In addition, market participants will be awaiting any further developments in the handling of the debt crisis in the euro zone.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 4

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to publish data on service sector activity.

Tuesday, November 6

In the U.S, voting in the U.S. presidential elections is to take place.

Wednesday, November 7

The U.S. is to publish government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, November 8

Japan is to release official data on core machinery orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as data on the current account.

The U.S. is to publish official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports, as well as the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, November 9

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.



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