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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: November 29-December 3

Published 11/28/2010, 06:48 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com – Last week saw the U.S. dollar rise against the yen for the fourth consecutive week, the longest streak in 20 months, amid fears over Japan’s close proximity to the unfolding conflict on the Korean peninsula.

USD/JPY hit 84.18 on Friday, the pair’s highest since September 28; the pair subsequently consolidated at 84.04 by close of trade, climbing 0.65% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 82.93, last Wednesday’s low and resistance at 85.17, the high of September 22.

On Friday, explosions were heard in Yeonpyeong Island and smoke was visible on the coast of North Korea, three days after North Korean shelling killed four people on the South Korean island. North Korea also warned the U.S. its plans for naval exercises with the South would drive the peninsula "closer to the brink of war."

Also last week, official data showed that Japan’s trade surplus unexpectedly contracted in October, as the rate of export growth decelerated for an eighth consecutive month.

Meanwhile, official data released last week painted a mixed picture of the U.S. economic recovery.

On Wednesday, Department of Labor data showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. in the week ended November 20 fell to the lowest level since July 2008. Separate reports showed that U.S. consumer sentiment rose to a 5-month high in November, while U.S. personal spending rose for the fourth consecutive month in October.

But official data also showed that both U.S. core durable goods orders and durable goods orders tumbled unexpectedly in October, while U.S. new home sales also fell unexpectedly in October.

Next week, the U.S. is to release data on ADP non-farm payrolls on Wednesday, ahead of the closely watched government data on non-farm employment on Friday. The government is also to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims. In addition, the U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence, pending home sales, manufacturing and service sector growth while the chairman of the Federal Reserve is to speak at a public engagement.

Japan is to release data on retail sales, as well as data on manufacturing, industrial production, unemployment and household spending. Meanwhile, the governor of the Bank of Japan is also to speak.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 29


Japan is to release a slew of data, including a report on retail sales, the primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to release data on manufacturing, industrial production, unemployment and household spending.

Meanwhile, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Masaaki Shirakawa, is to speak at a public event; his comments will be closely watched for possible clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Tuesday, November 30

The U.S. is to publish industry data on house prices, an important indicator of economic health as well as data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending. The country is also to release an index of manufacturing growth in the Chicago area, while Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke is to speak at a public engagement.

Also Tuesday, Japan is to release data on average cash earnings and housing starts.

Wednesday, December 1

The U.S. is to publish a key monthly report on ADP non-farm employment change, which leads government data by two days. The country is also to publish revised data on nonfarm productivity, as well as official data on manufacturing activity, construction spending, total vehicle sales and crude oil inventories. In addition, the Federal Reserve is to publish its Beige Book, a summary of the data the bank examines before setting the benchmark interest rate.

Later in the day, Japan is to publish reports on capital spending and monetary base.

Thursday, December 2

The U.S. is to publish key weekly data on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of overall economic health. The country will also release official data on pending home sales and natural gas storage.

Friday, December 3


The U.S. is to round up the week with key data on non-farm employment change and a report on the country's unemployment rate, both leading indicators of economic health. The country is also to publish industry data on service sector growth as well as official data on factory orders.

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