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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: November 25 - 29

Published 11/24/2013, 05:22 AM
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Investing.com - The dollar rose to four-and-a-half month highs against the broadly weaker yen on Friday amid mounting expectations that the Bank of Japan will implement additional monetary easing measures next year.

USD/JPY ended Friday’s session at 101.25, the highest level since July 8. For the week, the pair jumped 1.40%, the fourth consecutive weekly gain.

The pair is likely to find support at 100.75 and resistance at 101.97, the high of May 10.

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated Thursday that the bank will stick to its easing program and is prepared to take additional steps in order to meet its 2% inflation target.

The comments came at a news conference following a decision by the bank to keep monetary policy on hold.

Demand for the dollar continued to be underpinned after Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting said the bank could start scaling back its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in the “coming months” if the economy continues to improve as expected.

The euro rose to four-year highs against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY settling at 137.28, the highest level since October 2009, up from 136.35 on Thursday. For the week, the pair gained 1.81%.

The euro’s gains came as stronger-than-forecast German business confidence data indicated that the economic recovery in the euro zone is gaining traction.

Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose to 109.3 in November, its highest level since April 2012, from 107.4 in October. Economists had expected the index to tick up to 107.7.

The data pointed to a broad based recovery in the euro zone’s largest economy and eased concerns over the possibility of further rate cuts by the European Central Bank.

The euro also remained supported after ECB President Mario Draghi after downplayed speculation over negative deposit rates in the euro zone in a speech on Thursday.

Elsewhere, the pound rose to its highest level against the yen since October 2008 on Friday, with GBP/JPY settling at 164.29, up from 163.84 on Thursday.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release a series of reports on the housing sector, as well as data on consumer confidence and durable goods orders. The BoJ is to publish monetary policy meeting minutes, while Japan is to release data on retail sales, inflation and industrial production.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 25

The U.S. is to release private sector data on pending home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, November 26

The BoJ is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

The U.S. is to produce data on building permits, a leading indicator of future construction activity as well as a report on housing starts. The nation is also to release private sector data on consumer confidence and house price inflation.

Wednesday, November 27

The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment. The Labor Department is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims one day ahead of schedule due to Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday.

Thursday, November 28

Japan is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Markets in the U.S. will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Friday, November 29

Japan is to release a series of data, including reports on household spending, inflation, and industrial production.





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