Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: November 19 - 23

Published 11/18/2012, 07:41 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar ended the week close to a six-month high against the broadly weaker yen on Friday, as prospects for further monetary easing steps by the Bank of Japan curbed demand for the yen.

USD/JPY hit 81.45 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since April 25; the pair subsequently consolidated at 81.29 by close of trade on Friday, 2.23% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 80.88, Friday’s low and resistance at 82.54, the high of April 6.

The yen weakened broadly after Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda dissolved the lower house of parliament on Friday, setting the stage for elections in December, which are likely to see the opposition party, which advocates more aggressive monetary easing measures, come to power.

On Thursday, Japan’s opposition leader called on the BoJ to print unlimited amounts of money to reach a new inflation target between 2% and 3%.

Meanwhile, investors continued to remain concerned over the U.S. fiscal cliff, automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1.

Congressional leaders said talks with President Barack Obama on Friday to avert the fiscal crisis were "constructive."

There are fears the U.S. economy will fall back into a recession, unless a divided Congress and the White House can work out a compromise in the seven weeks left before the January 1 deadline.

Concerns over Greece also continued to linger amid disagreements between the International Monetary Fund and Europe on how best to reduce Greece’s debt to manageable levels.

A decision on disbursing the country’s next tranche of aid, worth EUR31.5 billion, has been postponed until 20 November.

In the week ahead market participants will be focusing on developments relating to the U.S. fiscal cliff, as well as Tuesday’s meeting of the euro group of finance ministers to discuss unlocking Greece’s next aid installment.

Investors will also be anticipating data on Japan’s trade balance amid concerns over a slowdown in the country’s largely export driven economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 19

The U.S. is to release industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, November 20

The BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The rate announcement is to be accompanied by the bank’s rate statement, which contains important insights into current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective. The central bank is to hold a press conference to discuss the monetary policy decision after the rate announcement.

The U.S. is to publish official data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts.

Wednesday, November 21

Japan is to publish official data on the trade balance, while the BoJ is to release its monthly report.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to release weekly government reports on initial jobless claims and crude oil inventories. This data is being released one day early ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

In addition, the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Thursday, November 22

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Friday, November 23

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a national holiday.



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