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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: November 18 - 22

Published 11/17/2013, 06:45 AM
USD/JPY
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EUR/JPY
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Investing.com - The dollar eased back from two-month highs against the yen on Friday after unexpectedly soft U.S. manufacturing data but the safe have yen remained under pressure amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will stick to its stimulus program for some time to come.

USD/JPY ended Friday’s session at 100.19 after rising as high as 100.42 earlier. For the week, the pair gained 1.04%, the third straight weekly gain.

The pair is likely to find support at 99.12, Thursday’s low and resistance at 100.60, the high of September 11.

The dollar trimmed gains after a report showed that the Federal Reserve’s Empire state manufacturing index fell to -2.21 from 1.52 in October. Economists had forecast a rise to 5.0.

A separate report showed that U.S. industrial production fell 0.1% in October, after rising by 0.7% in September, compared to expectations for a 0.2% increase.

The data came a day after testimony from Federal Reserve Vice Chairwoman Janet Yellen was seen as cementing the view that the bank will keep its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in place until early next year.

Ms. Yellen said it was "imperative" that the Fed does everything in its power to ensure a robust recovery. She said the quantitative easing program would not continue indefinitely but the timescale for reducing it would be data dependent.

The comments came during a Senate confirmation hearing to take over from Ben Bernanke as head of the central bank in February.

U.S. equities markets rose on Friday, with the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 climbing to record highs, dampening demand for the safety of the yen.

The yen slid against the other main currencies on Thursday after Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said it is important to retain currency market intervention as a policy option to utilize in time of excess volatility in markets.

Meanwhile, data released on Thursday showed that Japan’s economy grew by 0.5% in the third quarter, beating forecasts for growth of 0.4%, but the annual rate of growth slowed to 1.9%, down sharply from the 4.3% expansion in the second quarter.

Elsewhere, the euro ended the week 1.71% higher against the broadly weaker yen, with EUR/JPY settling at 135.22, up from 134.58 on Thursday.

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s most recent policy setting meeting. The U.S. is also to release data on retail sales and consumer prices.

Markets will also be looking ahead to the outcome of the Bank of Japan’s latest policy setting meeting.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, November 18

The U.S. is to release private sector data on the outlook for the housing sector.

Tuesday, November 19

The U.S. is to release data on the employment cost index, an important inflationary indicator.

Wednesday, November 20

Japan is to release data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

The U.S. is to release a series of data including a report on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The nation is also to publish data on consumer inflation, existing home sales and business inventories.

Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish what will be the closely watched minutes of its latest policy meeting.

Thursday, November 21

The BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its monetary policy statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

The U.S. is release data on producer price inflation, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to release data manufacturing activity from the Philly Fed.




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