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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: November 14 -18

Published 11/13/2011, 06:03 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com – Last Friday saw the broadly weaker U.S. dollar fall to its lowest level against the yen since Japan’s government intervened last month to curb the appreciation of the currency, as expectations for further aggressive action by Japanese officials waned.

USD/JPY hit 77.04 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since October 31; the pair subsequently consolidated at 77.17 by close of trade, falling 1.26% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 76.67, the low of October 20 and resistance at 77.67, Friday’s high.

On Friday, Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi he will continue to keep a close watch to see if there are speculative moves in the foreign exchange market amid persistent concerns over the sustainability of Italy's debt.

"I'm closely watching the market with interest to see if there are speculative, excessive movements," Azumi said.

On Wednesday, yields on 10-year Italian bonds rose above the 7% level that prompted Greece, Ireland, and Portugal to seek international bailouts, before falling back on Thursday.

But the safe haven dollar came under pressure on Friday as market sentiment was boosted after Italy’s Parliament approved an amendment to the country’s 2012 budget, paving the way for the resignation of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and the formation of a new emergency government.

Meanwhile, in Greece caretaker Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and his cabinet were sworn in. Papademos will implement the country's latest EUR130 billion bailout before leading the country to early elections.

Elsewhere Friday, preliminary data showing that U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in five months in November contributed to stronger risk appetite.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to a seasonally adjusted 64.2, from 60.9 in October, outstripping forecasts for an increase to 61.0.

On Saturday, the head of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde said last month’s intervention by Japan was justified, saying the intervention aimed at curbing excess volatility in the foreign exchange market “was in line with the spirit of G7 and G20."

In the coming week the U.S. is to release data on housing manufacturing, and inflation as well as a closely watched report on retail sales. Meanwhile, Japan is to publish official data on third quarter growth.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, November 14


Japan is to publish government data on gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.

Tuesday, November 15

The U.S. is to publish official data on retail sales, the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to produce reports on producer price inflation and business inventories as well as a report on manufacturing activity in New York State.

Wednesday, November 16

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate; the announcement will be followed with a press conference to discuss the factors which affected the rate decision.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish data on consumer inflation, as well as data on industrial production, the capacity utilization rate, crude oil stockpiles and the balance of foreign and domestic investment in long-term securities.

Thursday, November 17

The BoJ is to publish its monthly report, which gives investors a detailed insight into economic conditions from the bank’s point of view.

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on initial jobless claims, as well as reports on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity and housing starts. The country is also to release a report on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia, a leading indicator of economic health.

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