Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: May 7 - 11

Published 05/06/2012, 05:56 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar fell against the yen on Friday, after data showing that the U.S. economy added less jobs than forecast for a second successive month in April added to speculation over the possibility of another round of easing by the Federal Reserve.

USD/JPY hit 79.63 on Tuesday, the pair’s lowest since February 21; the pair subsequently consolidated at 79.83 by close of trade on Friday, shedding 0.51% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 79.63, Tuesday’s low and a two-month low and resistance at 80.39, Friday’s high.

 The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in last month, far short of expectations for a 170,000 increase, after adding an upwardly revised 154,000 jobs in March.

The unemployment rate ticked lower to 8.1% but the labor participation rate also declined, as fewer people sought jobs.

The weak data added to uncertainty over the strength of the U.S. recovery and fuelled speculation the Federal Reserve implement a third round of quantitative easing measures to stimulate growth.

The greenback has remained under pressure against the yen since mid-March, hit by uncertainty over whether the U.S. economy is weak enough for the Fed to attempt to shore-up growth via monetary easing measures, which would weaken the dollar.

Market sentiment was also hit by concerns over political uncertainty in the euro zone, in the run-up to weekend elections in Greece and France, amid fears that leadership changes could hinder attempts to resolve the region’s debt crisis.

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching election results in Greece and France, while in the U.S. a speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in Chicago on Thursday the main focus for the greenback.

Markets in Japan are to reopen, having been closed for much of last week for the Golden Week holiday.

In addition, China is to release a flurry of data, including reports on retail sales and inflation that will allow investors to gauge the strength of the world’s second largest economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Tuesday, as there are no significant events on this day.

Monday, May 7

The Bank of Japan is to release the minutes of its most recent monetary policy meeting, which will provide insights into the economic conditions that influenced its latest interest rate decision.

Wednesday, May 9

The U.S. is to produce government data on crude oil stockpiles. The country is also to hold a 10-year government bond auction

Thursday, May 10

Japan is to release government data on the country’s current account.

The U.S. is to produce official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods, as well as government data on unemployment claims and import prices.

The country is also to release government data on the federal budget balance and the Treasury currency report, while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to speak. His comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Friday, May 11

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on producer price inflation, a key gauge of consumer inflation, followed by a preliminary report by the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment, a leading indicator of consumer spending.


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