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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: May 5 - 9

Published 05/04/2014, 06:11 AM
Dollar gives up gains vs. yen after U.S. jobs report
USD/JPY
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Investing.com - The dollar ended Friday’s session slightly lower against the yen after initially rising to more than three-week highs following data showing that the U.S. economy added jobs at the fastest pace in more than two years last month.

The dollar strengthened after the Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 288,000 jobs in April, well above expectations for jobs growth of 210,000. The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to a five and a half year low of 6.3%, compared to expectations for 6.6%.

But the dollar quickly gave back gains after the report also showed that the labor force participation rate, which measures the proportion of people either working or looking for work, fell to 62.8% from 63.2% in March. Meanwhile, average wage growth edged lower in April from the same month a year earlier, dampening the medium term inflation outlook.

USD/JPY hit highs of 103.01, the strongest level since April 8, before retracing these gains to end the session at 102.18. The pair ended the week 0.33% lower.

The pair is likely to find support at 101.95, the low of April 25 and resistance at 102.65.

Earlier in the week, preliminary data showed that U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of just 0.1% in the first three months of the year, well below forecasts for an expansion of 1.2%.

Despite the sharp slowdown in growth the Federal Reserve said Wednesday it would reduce its bond purchases to $45 billion a month. The Fed also said interest rates would remain on hold at record lows for a "considerable time" after the bond-buying program ends later this year.

The U.S. central bank acknowledged that first quarter growth was far weaker than expected, but added that growth had started to pick up in recent weeks.

Also Wednesday, the Bank of Japan refrained from implementing additional stimulus measures at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting. The BoJ stuck to its pledge to target an annual increase in the monetary base of between ¥60 trillion and ¥70 trillion, in a widely anticipated decision.

In the week ahead, markets in Japan will be closed for holidays on Monday and Tuesday. Investors will be looking ahead to Monday’s report on U.S. service sector activity and Wednesday’s testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on monetary policy and the economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, May 5

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a national holiday.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on service sector activity.

Tuesday, May 6

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a national holiday.

The U.S. is to release data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

Wednesday, May 7

The BoJ is to publish monetary policy meeting minutes.

Later Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to testify before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, in Washington.

Thursday, May 8

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

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