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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: March 5 - 9

Published 03/04/2012, 06:20 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar rallied to a nine-month high against the yen on Friday, after data showing that Japan’s economy is still struggling with deflation prompted the country’s bank to reaffirm a commitment to loose monetary policy.

USD/JPY hit 81.86 on Friday, the pair’s highest since May 26; the pair subsequently consolidated at 81.79 by close of trade, gaining 0.67% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 81.06, Friday’s low and short-term resistance at 82.21, the high of May 24.

The yen’s losses came after official data showed that Japanese consumer price inflation declined by an annualized 0.1% in January, indicating that mild deflation remains a risk for the economy.

Following the data, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa reiterated the bank’s commitment to achieve a 1% rise in the rate of CPI by keeping monetary policy loose.

The yen has been under pressure since last month’s surprise decision by the BoJ to increase the size of the bank’s asset purchase program by JPY10 trillion and target a 1% inflation goal.

The dollar strengthened broadly on Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke dampened expectations for a third round of quantitative easing. In testimony to Congress, Bernanke acknowledged the recent improvement in the labor market and said that higher oil prices could push up inflation.

The remarks came after the U.S. Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.0% during the fourth quarter, up from a preliminary estimate of 2.8%.

Other reports last week continued to paint a mixed picture of the U.S. economic recovery. Data on Tuesday showed that U.S. durable goods orders dropped to a three-year low in January.

The Institute for Supply Management said Thursday that U.S. manufacturing activity expanded at a slower rate than expected in February, while official data showed that U.S. initial jobless claims declined modestly in the previous week, holding close to the lowest level since March 2008.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s data on U.S. non-farm payrolls, to gauge the strength of the country’s economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 5

The U.S. is to produce government data on factory orders, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release a report on service sector growth.

Tuesday, March 6

Japan is to release government data on average cash earnings, which is closely correlated with consumer spending.

Wednesday, March 7

Japan is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, which is designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

The U.S. is to publish a report on ADP non-farm payrolls, which leads government data by two days. The country is also to release revised data on non-farm productivity and labor costs, which are important inflationary indicators, as well as a report on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, March 8

Japan is to produce final data on fourth quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health. The country is also to release data on bank lending, the current account, the GDP price index and a preliminary report on machine tool orders.

Later Thursday, the U.S. is to produce government data on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, March 9

The BoJ is to release a report on M3 money stock, which measures the change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks.

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate, leading indicators of economic health, in addition to data on the trade balance and average hourly earnings.

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