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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: January 23 - 27

Published 01/22/2012, 06:23 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar ended the week almost unchanged against the yen on Friday, as renewed concerns over the financial crisis in the euro zone weighed on market sentiment amid ongoing discussions on restructuring Greece’s sovereign debt.

USD/JPY hit 76.54 on Tuesday, the pair’s lowest since October 31; the pair subsequently consolidated at 76.98 by close of trade on Friday, shedding 0.10% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 76.69, the low of January 16 and resistance at 77.33, the high of January 6.

Officials said on Friday that Greece was nearing an agreement with creditors on a debt restructuring deal, aimed at erasing EUR100 billion of the country’s EUR360 billion debt burden and securing another tranche of international aid.

Meanwhile, industry data showed that existing home sales in the U.S. rose less-than-expected in December, advancing to 4.61 million after a rise to 4.39 million the previous month.

Analysts had expected existing home sales to rise to 4.65 million in December.

The greenback edged higher against the yen earlier in the week as successful government debt auctions by Spain and France eased concerns that borrowing costs for euro zone countries would rise, after ratings downgrades on the countries by Standard & Poor's earlier in the month.

Spain sold EUR6.61 billion of medium to long-term debt at broadly lower yields, exceeding the maximum target of EUR4.5 billion set for the auction, while France auctioned EUR7.97 billion of medium and long-term securities.

Sentiment was also boosted after the International Monetary Fund said it wanted to increase its lending capacity by as much as USD500 billion, having identified a potential need for USD1 trillion in coming years.

The dollar rallied to a nine-day high against the yen on Thursday after the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the week ending January 13 declined unexpectedly, falling to the lowest level in almost four years.

The number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits fell to 352,000 from 402,000 the previous week, surpassing expectations for a fall to 385,000.

Separate reports showed that U.S. consumer price inflation was flat in December, while U.S. housing starts dropped 4.1% to a 657,000 annual rate last month.

Elsewhere, Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi warned against the appreciation of the yen after the euro fell to an eleven-year low against the currency on Monday, signaling his readiness to step into the market to counter excess speculation, but added that Japan could not intervene in the same way Switzerland has.

In the coming week, investors will be eyeing developments in the euro zone, with finance ministers from the single currency bloc meeting in Brussels on Monday, with Greece’s debt restructuring deal likely to be at the top of the agenda.

Markets will also be closely watching the outcome of Thursday’s Federal Reserve policy setting meeting, as well as Friday’s preliminary data on U.S. fourth-quarter gross domestic product.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, January 24

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and release its monetary policy statement, which contains insights into current economic conditions from the bank’s perspective. The releases will be followed by a closely watched press conference.   

Wednesday, January 25

The BoJ is to publish its monthly report on economic and financial developments.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to release industry data on pending home sales, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market, as well as official data on crude oil stockpiles. The Federal Reserve is to announce the federal funds rate and publish its official rate statement.

Elsewhere, the World Economic Forum is to begin its five-day annual meeting in Davos in Switzerland.

Thursday, January 26

In the U.S., official data is to be produced on durable goods, an important indicator of production, as well as on unemployment claims and new home sales, a key gauge of economic health.

Friday, January 27

Japan is to publish official data on consumer price inflation in Tokyo as well as industry data on retail sales. Later in the day, the BoJ is to release the minutes of its most recent policy setting meeting.

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on the country’s fourth quarter GDP and GDP price index, followed by a revised data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.


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