Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: February 20 - 24

Published 02/19/2012, 05:26 AM
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar advanced to a six-month high against the broadly weaker yen on Friday, after the Bank of Japan’s surprise announcement earlier in the week that it was enlarging the scale of its asset-purchase program.

USD/JPY hit 79.60 on Friday, the pair’s highest since August 4, 2011; the pair subsequently consolidated at 79.53 by close of trade on Friday, up 2.50% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 78.78, Friday’s low and resistance at 80.23, the high of August 4.

The yen weakened against the greenback and the euro on Friday after BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said the central bank would keep monetary policy loose.

The comments came after the central bank announced Wednesday that it was increasing the size of its asset-purchase program to JPY30 trillion in an attempt to boost growth and protect the economy from the effects of the strong yen.

The BoJ also set a target of 1% inflation “for the time being.”

In the report for February policymakers said the economy has been flat and was expected to remain so for some time to come.

"Japan's economic activity has been more or less flat mainly due to the effects of a slowdown in overseas economies and the appreciation of the yen," the BoJ said.

The greenback was also boosted by a string of improving U.S. economic data.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor said initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to their lowest level since March 2008 last week, declining to 348,000, confounding expectations for an increase to 364,000.

On Friday, the U.S. Conference Board said that its index of leading economic indicators increased for the fourth consecutive month in January.

Against the euro, the yen declined 1.99% over the week, with EUR/JPY closing trade on Friday at 104.51, the highest level since December 5.

The euro remained supported amid optimism that an agreement on a second bailout for Greece worth EUR130 billion would be reached at Monday's meeting of euro zone finance ministers.

Without a bailout, Greece faces the threat of defaulting when a EUR14.5 billion bond redemption comes due on March 20.

In the week ahead, markets will be keenly awaiting the outcome of Monday’s meeting of euro zone finance ministers, while markets in the U.S. will be closed for the Presidents Day holiday.

Also next week, Japan is to publish official data on its trade balance.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Tuesday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, February 20

Japan is to publish a government report on trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods.

Markets in the U.S. will remain closed for the Presidents Day holiday.

Wednesday, February 22

The U.S. is to release industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market, followed by official data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, February 23

The U.S. is to release government data on unemployment claims, an important signal of overall economic health.

Meanwhile, finance ministers and central bankers are to meet throughout the day for the seventh G20 meeting, in Mexico.

Friday, February 24

The U.S. is to round up the week with a revised report by the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment, followed by government data on new home sales, an important signal of economic health.


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