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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: February 16 - 20

Published 02/15/2015, 06:26 AM
© Reuters.  Dollar slips lower against yen after soft U.S. data
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Investing.com - The dollar was lower against the yen for a second consecutive session on Friday after data showing U.S consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated this month prompted markets to reassess expectations for a mid-year rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

USD/JPY was down 0.31% to 118.73 in late trade, off Wednesday’s five-week highs of 120.47.

The greenback weakened after a report showing the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 93.6 in February, down from last month’s final reading of 98.1. Economists had forecast an unchanged figure.

The data came one day after data showing that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.8% last month after dropping 0.9% in December, indicating that consumer spending remained sluggish at the start of the year.

The weak data prompted investors to trim back long positions in the greenback ahead of a three-day holiday weekend.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was little changed at 94.24 late Friday, ending the week down 0.5%.

The yen was also higher against the euro, with EUR/JPY down 0.4% to 135.27 at the close.

In the euro zone, data on Friday showed that Germany’s economy, the region’s largest, grew 0.7% in the fourth quarter, more than double the 0.3% forecast by economists.

The euro zone economy expanded by a larger-than-expected 0.3% in the three months to December, but Greece’s economy contracted 0.2% in the same period.

Officials from Greece and the European Union were due to hold fresh talks on Monday after talks on a new debt deal last week ended without an agreement.

Greece’s current €240 billion bailout is due to expire on February 28 and the new Greek government does not want it extended, fuelling fears over a conflict with its creditors which could trigger the country’s exit from the euro zone.

In the coming week, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting for further indications on when the Fed may start to hike interest rates.

Monday’s data on Japanese economic growth and Wednesday’s policy announcement by the Bank of Japan will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 16

Japan is to release preliminary data on fourth quarter economic growth.

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Presidents Day holiday.

Tuesday, February 17

The U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in New York State as well as a private sector survey of home builders.

Wednesday, February 18

The BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The bank will hold a press conference following the announcement.

The U.S. is to release a string of economic reports, including data on producer prices, housing starts, building permits and industrial production. Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its January meeting.

Thursday, February 19

Japan is to release data on the trade balance.

The U.S. is to publish a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region and the weekly government figures on initial jobless claims.

Friday, February 20

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on manufacturing activity.

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