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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: February 13 - 17

Published 02/12/2012, 05:55 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar rose to a two-week high against the yen last week, as the threat of a disorderly default by Greece eased and data showing that Japan’s current account surplus contracted sharply in 2001 weighed.

USD/JPY hit 77.80 on Friday, the pair’s highest since January 26; the pair subsequently consolidated at 77.61 by close of trade on Friday, up 1.31% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 77.00, Thursday’s low and resistance at 77.80, Friday’s high.

On Thursday, Greek political leaders reached a long awaited consensus on the conditions set by international creditors in exchange for a new bailout worth EUR130 billion.

But the greenback slipped against the yen on Friday, as market sentiment was hit by uncertainty over whether Greece’s parliament will pass a vote on austerity measures in order to secure the second bailout.

Despite the yen’s decline against the greenback Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said Friday that the recent rise in the currency appeared "one-sided" and said "decisive steps" could be taken to halt the movement and added that he had "strong concerns" the rally had lost touch with economic reality in Japan.

Meanwhile, in remarks before parliament earlier Friday, Mr. Azumi said that he had decided to intervene to weaken the yen in October when it hit 75.63 against the dollar, sparking surprise in markets, as details about currency market interventions are rarely provided.

The euro was also lower against the yen on Friday, pulling back from a two-month high.

On Thursday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi joined the U.S. in criticizing Japan’s unilateral yen selling intervention in October, saying that intervention should be multilateral.

The yen came under pressure earlier in the week after data on Wednesday showed that Japan’s current-account surplus shrank at its fastest rate on record in 2011, as exports dropped and energy costs climbed sharply.

The trade surplus increases the yen’s safe haven demand because it means Japan doesn’t have to rely on overseas lenders.

In the week ahead, euro zone finance ministers are expected to meet on Tuesday to discuss Greece’s bailout deal, which should lead to a final approval by the country’s international lenders, including the International Monetary Fund and the ECB.

Investors will also be awaiting preliminary data on Japanese gross domestic product and U.S. retail sales, to assess the impact of the fiscal crisis in the euro zone on global growth.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 13

Japan is to produce preliminary data on GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health. The country is also to release preliminary data on the GDP price index, followed by industry data on tertiary industry activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, February 14

The Bank of Japan is to release its monetary policy statement as well as its overnight call rate, followed by a press conference. The press conference will be closely watched for possible hints to the future direction of monetary policy.

Also Tuesday, the U.S. is to produce official data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to publish reports on import prices and business inventories, a signal of future business spending.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is also due to speak later in the day; his comments will be closely watched for clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Wednesday, February 15

The BoJ is to release its monthly report, which provides investors with a detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions, from the bank’s perspective.

The U.S. is to release a report on the Empire State Manufacturing index, a leading indicator of economic health, followed by data on net foreign purchases of long-term securities. The Federal Reserve is also to publish data on its capacity utilization rate, an important indicator of consumer inflation, as well as on industrial production before releasing the minutes of its latest policy meeting later in the day. The country is also to produce an official report on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, February 16

The U.S. is to publish government data on building permits, an important gauge of future construction activity, and housing starts, as well as reports on producer price inflation and unemployment claims. In addition, the country is to produce data on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area.

Later in the day, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to speak; his comments will be closely watched for clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Friday, February 17

The BoJ is to release the minutes of its latest policy setting meeting.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a government report on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.


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