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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: December 1 - 5

Published 11/30/2014, 06:51 AM
Dollar ends week near 7-year peaks against weaker yen
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Investing.com -The dollar ended the week close to seven-year peaks against the yen on Friday as tumbling oil prices added to concerns over the risk of deflation in Japan and the diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan continued to pressure the yen lower.

USD/JPY was up 0.73% to 118.59 in late trade, not far from the seven-year peaks of 118.96 struck on November 20.

Oil prices tumbled on Friday following Thursday’s decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to keep its production quotas unchanged, fuelling fears over a global supply glut.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.45% to 88.41 late Friday, not far from the four-year highs of 88.52 set on Monday.

The yen has weakened broadly since the Bank of Japan unexpectedly expanded its stimulus program on October 31. In contrast the Fed wound up its asset purchase program last month and is weighing whether or not the economy is strong enough to start raising interest rates next year.

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved parliament earlier this month, clearing the way for elections to be held on December 15 to seek a fresh mandate for his economic policies, which call for a weaker yen. The decision came after data showing that Japan’s economy unexpectedly fell into recession in the third quarter.

The euro also gained ground against the yen, with EUR/JPY up 0.65% to 147.66 late Friday.

In the euro zone, data on Friday showed that the annual rate of inflation slowed to a five year low of 0.3% in November. The weak data was seen as increasing the likelihood that the European Central Bank will implement quantitative easing measures in a bid to spur growth and stave off the threat of deflation.

In the week ahead investors will be focusing on the outcome of a policy meeting of the ECB on Thursday, which is to be followed by the U.S. jobs report for November on Friday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Tuesday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, December 1

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, December 3

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation. Later Thursday, the ISM is to publish a report on U.S. service sector activity.

Thursday, December 4

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, December 5

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average earnings, as well as a report on factory orders.

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