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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: April 28 - May 2

Published 04/27/2014, 05:35 AM
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Investing.com - The yen was higher against the dollar for the third consecutive session on Friday as heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine bolstered investor demand for safe haven assets.

USD/JPY fell to one-week lows of 101.96 on Friday, before settling at 102.18, and ended the week down 0.48%.

The pair is likely to find support at 101.40, the low of April 14 and resistance at 102.70, last Tuesday’s high.

Concerns over the conflict between Russian and Ukraine escalated on Friday after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned that Washington was ready to step up sanctions on Russia. The West is accusing Russia of leading a separatist revolt in eastern Ukraine after it annexed Crimea last month.

Demand for the yen continued to be underpinned despite data on Friday showing that Japanese inflation remained unchanged for a third successive month in April. The weak data fuelled expectations that the Bank of Japan will implement a fresh round of monetary stimulus this year, which would weigh on the yen.

The yen was slightly lower against the euro on Friday, with EUR/JPY slipping 0.12% to 141.36. The pair ended the week 0.18% lower.

The common currency remained under pressure after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterated warnings on Thursday that the strong euro could trigger further monetary easing.

He also said the ECB could launch a "broad-based" asset purchase program if the medium-term inflation outlook deteriorated.

In the U.S., data on Friday showed that consumer confidence rose to a nine-month high in April, adding to signs that the economy is improving.

The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index came in at 84.1 this month, up from 80 in March and the preliminary reading of 82.6. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 83.0.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. jobs report for April and the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Wednesday’s monetary policy statement by the BoJ will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 28

Japan is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The U.S. is to release private sector data on pending home sales.

Tuesday, April 29

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a holiday.

The U.S. is to a report compiled by the Conference Board on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, April 30

Japan is to publish data on average cash earnings and industrial production. At the same time, the BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its monetary policy statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

The U.S. is to release preliminary data on first quarter GDP, as well as the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.

Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, May 1

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims. At the same time, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Later Thursday, the Institute of Supply Management is to release a report on manufacturing activity.

Friday, May 2

Japan is to publish data on household spending.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, and a separate report on factory orders.

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