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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: April 15 - 19

Published 04/14/2013, 05:54 AM
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Investing.com - The dollar fell sharply against the yen on Friday, retreating from four-year highs after weak economic data underlined fears over the strength of the U.S. economic recovery, enhancing the safe haven appeal of the yen.

USD/JPY hit session lows of 98.10, before settling at 98.37, down 1.30% for the day and 0.98% lower for the week.

The dollar had hit a high of 99.93 against the yen on Thursday, the highest level since April 2009.

The pair is likely to find support at 95.73, the low of April 5 and resistance at 99.93, Thursday’s high.

The yen rebounded against the dollar after official data showed that U.S. retail sales fell 0.4% in March, the largest decline in nine months and missing expectations for a 0.1% increase.

A separate report showed that the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 72.3 in April, the lowest level since July, from a final reading of 78.6 in March.

The yen’s rebound reversed some of the sharp falls in the currency since the Bank of Japan unveiled unprecedented monetary stimulus measures aimed at beating deflation in the world’s third largest economy on April 4.

The dollar gained more than 6% against the yen since the BoJ pledged to double its asset purchase program over the next two years and extend the maturities of the bonds it purchases.

The dollar’s rally paused before the psychologically important 100.00 yen level, but expectations that the yen would continue to weaken in the long term remained intact.

The euro fell sharply against the yen on Friday, pulling back from 39-month highs, with EUR/JPY down 1.23% to settle at 128.97, 0.35% lower for the week.

In the coming week, the U.S. is to publish a broad range of economic data, with reports on manufacturing activity, the housing sector and inflation due for release. Investors will be closely watching this data as they attempt to gauge the strength of the U.S. recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Wednesday and Friday, as there are no relevant events on these days.

Monday, April 15

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Tokyo; his comments will be closely watched for indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.

The U.S. is to publish data on manufacturing activity in New York state, a leading economic indicator.

Tuesday, April 16

The U.S. is to publish official data on building permits, an excellent indicator of future construction activity and on housing starts. The U.S. is also to release data on consumer inflation, industrial production and the capacity utilization rate.

Thursday, April 18

Japan is to publish official data on the trade balance, the difference between imports and exports.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims as well as data on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia.



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