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Forex - USD/JPY gains on Japanese election results, U.S. fiscal unease

Published 12/17/2012, 01:36 PM
Updated 12/17/2012, 01:37 PM
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Investing.com - The dollar spiked against the yen on Monday after the Liberal Democratic party won Japanese elections on Sunday, likely ushering in a period of looser monetary policies at the Bank of Japan.

In U.S. trading on Monday, USD/JPY was trading at 83.80, up 0.32%, up from a session low of 83.61 and off a high of 84.34.

The pair was likely to find support at 83.61, the earlier low, and resistance at 84.34, the earlier high.

With Liberal Democratic leader Shinzo Abe poised to become the country's next prime minister, market participants spent Monday betting the candidate will make good on calls for the Bank of Japan to ramp up monetary easing programs to weaken the yen and jolt the economy.

The Liberal Democratic party and coalition partners took a two-thirds majority in Sunday’s elections, which pretty much gives Abe the green light to loosen monetary policy.

Abe has called for unlimited easing in the past to spur growth.

Meanwhile, the dollar saw some support from investors seeking safe-haven demand amid growing fiscal uncertainty in the U.S.

At the end of 2012, the Bush-era tax breaks and other benefits expire at the same time cuts to government spending are scheduled to kick in, a combination known as a fiscal cliff that could contract the economy by 0.5% next year if Congress fails to avoid it, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates.

Markets have been patient up to now though with no deal in sight, some investors became a little nervous and began to take up sporadic safe-haven dollar positions on Monday despite reports that congressional Republicans may warm up to Democratic proposals for tax hikes on top U.S. earners, which sparked some demand for risk, which cooled the dollar's advance.

Democrats want tax breaks to expire on those earning USD250,000 a year, far below a reported Republican offer at a minimum USD1 million a year.

Markets shrugged off data revealing that New York business activity came in weaker than expected.

The Empire State business conditions index dropped to -8.1 in December from a reading of -5.2 the previous month, missing market calls for a -1.0 reading.

The yen, meanwhile was down against the pound and down against the euro, with GBP/JPY up 0.48% and trading at 135.73 and EUR/JPY trading up 0.37% at 110.31.

Later Tuesday, the U.S. will release government data on the current account, a broad indicator of economic health.







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