Forex - USD/JPY continues rally amid weak Japanese economic data

Published 12/13/2012, 10:34 PM
Updated 12/13/2012, 10:36 PM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar continued to gain against the Japanese yen during Friday’s Asian session. The dollar traded to a multi-year high, around a level it had not seen since March of 2011. Weak economic data from Japan supported the notion that the Bank of Japan would take additional steps to weaken the yen.

The USD/JPY traded at 83.88, up 0.27% in early Asian trading. The dollar had a notable spike from 83.72 straight up to 83.87, before consolidating slightly, and then moving back higher.

As the pair is trading near a multi-year high, resistance may be found back at March 2011’s high of 85.32, while support is found at 83.74, a key inflection point during the session.

Japan is set to hold elections on Sunday to determine the country’s next prime minister. Shinzo Abe, the country’s Liberal Democratic party candidate, is widely expected to emerge victorious.

Abe is notable from a currency standpoint, as he has called for the Bank of Japan to undertake unlimited quantitative easing. Such a policy is likely to weaken the yen, so traders are selling the yen ahead of the election.

However, should Abe’s bid fail, traders might anticipate a rapid reversal in the USD/JPY.

Still, the Bank of Japan remains -- officially -- an independent central bank, so its future operations may not be affected no matter Japan’s election outcome.

Early Friday, two Japanese data points missed expectations. The Tankan Large Manufacturers Index came in below expectations at -12 (the consensus estimate for -10), and the Tankan Non-Manufacturers Index came in at 4, less than the 5 that was anticipated.

A strong yen makes Japanese high-tech electronic exports less attractive to foreign buyers. A weaker yen could support demand for Japan’s exports in foreign markets, boosting the Japanese economy.

In recent months, the Bank of Japan has intervened in the currency market multiple times to weaken the yen. Yet, these moves have only been temporary, and the yen has tended to rebound despite the Bank’s actions.

Perhaps Abe’s election would usher in a new age where Japan’s central bank was able to successful weaken its currency. Or perhaps currency traders are getting ahead of themselves.

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