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Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: September 30 - October 4

Published 09/29/2013, 07:01 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com - The dollar fell to seven-month lows against the traditional safe haven Swiss franc on Friday, as concerns over prospects for a U.S. government shutdown and uncertainty over how soon the Federal Reserve will start tapering stimulus weighed.

USD/CHF hit session lows of 0.9022, the lowest since early February, before trimming losses to settle at 0.9062, 0.47% lower for the day and also ending the week 0.47% lower.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8930 and resistance at 0.9109, Friday’s high.

The dollar weakened amid concerns that political wrangling in Washington could lead to a government shutdown and create a drag on fourth quarter economic growth.

Congress must pass a short-term budget by midnight on Monday in order to avoid a government shutdown.

Republican opposition to the funding of the Affordable Care Act has created a standoff with the White House and the Democratic-controlled Senate, which have both said they will not support any budget bill that defunds or amends Obamacare.

Later this month, Congress will also have to extend the U.S. debt ceiling which the U.S. Treasury Department has estimated will be reached by October 17.

Sentiment on the dollar remained negative following the Federal Reserve’s unexpected decision earlier this month to maintain its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program.

Data on Friday showing that U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in five months underlined concerns over the outlook for the economic recovery.

The final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 77.5 in September from a reading of 82.1 in August, the lowest level since April.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, for indications on whether the economic recovery is sufficiently strong for the Fed to start rolling back its stimulus program.

Markets will also be watching developments in U.S. budget negotiations.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 30

The U.S. is to release a report on manufacturing activity in Chicago.

Tuesday, October 1

Switzerland is to release its SVME purchasing managers’ index, a leading indicator of economic health.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to produce a report on manufacturing activity, a leading economic indicator.

Wednesday, October 2

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on nonfarm payrolls, which leads the closely watched government report by two days.

Thursday, October 3

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims along with data on factory orders. Meanwhile, the ISM is to produce a report on non-manufacturing activity, a leading economic indicator.

Friday, October 4

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.




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