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Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: September 27- October 1

Published 09/26/2010, 08:00 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com – Last week saw the Swiss franc advance to its highest level in two and a half years against the U.S. dollar, closing trade on Friday at parity amid concerns that the rate of U.S. economic growth is moderating.

USD/CHF hit 0.9778 on Friday, the pair's lowest since March 17, 2008; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9833 by close of trade, having tumbled 2.30% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9634, the low of March 17 2008 and resistance at 1.0073, the high of September 21.

On Friday, official data showed that U.S. durable goods orders declined in line with expectations in August, while new home sales were flat over the month. Meanwhile, on Thursday official data showed that U.S. initial jobless claims rose more-than-expected in the preceding week. 

Earlier in the week, in their monetary policy statement for October, Federal Reserve officials said the U.S. economic recovery was likely to remain modest in the near term and indicated concern over sluggish U.S. growth and continuing low levels of inflation.

The soft data fuelled concerns that the Fed may begin another round of asset purchases, known as quantitative easing to bolster flagging U.S. growth and reduce the risk of the U.S. falling into deflation.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims as well as data on unemployment, consumer confidence and manufacturing. The country is also to release final GDP data while Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke is to speak at two public engagements.

Meanwhile, Switzerland is to publish data on retail sales and manufacturing. The country is also to publish an index of economic conditions as well as data on consumption indicators.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect USD/CHF. The guide begins on Tuesday, as there are no such events on Monday.

Tuesday, September 28

The U.S. is to publish data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 70% of all economic activity. The country is also due to release industry data on house prices as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Richmond area.

Meanwhile, Switzerland is to publish an index of consumer-based economic indicators, including consumer confidence, consumer spending, tourism, new car sales, and retail activity.

Wednesday, September 29

In the U.S., President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren is due to speak on the nation’s economy. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy. The country is also to produce data on crude oil inventories.

Meanwhile, in Switzerland, the KOF research group is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the direction of the economy over the following six months.

Thursday, September 30

The U.S. is to release final data on its gross domestic product, the leading indicator of economic growth. The country is also due to produce key data on initial jobless claims and manufacturing activity in Chicago.

Later in the day, Federal Reserve Chairmen Ben Bernanke is expected to deliver a speech on the U.S. economy. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Friday, October 1

The U.S. is to end the week by producing key data on personal spending and income, while the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. The country is also to release official data on manufacturing conditions, total vehicle sales and construction spending.

Meanwhile, Switzerland is to produce key data on retail sales, a leading indicator of overall consumer spending and manufacturing activity, a key indicator of economic health.


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