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Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: September 23 - 27

Published 09/22/2013, 06:31 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com - The dollar ended the week at seven-month lows against the Swiss franc on Friday, after the Federal Reserve took investors by surprise in announcing no reduction to the scale of its asset purchase program.

USD/CHF fell as low as 0.9088 on Friday, the lowest since February 7, before settling at 0.9107, ending the week 1.75% lower.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9020, the low of February 1 and resistance at 0.9136, Thursday’s high.

The dollar turned sharply lower against the other major currencies on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it wanted to see more evidence of a sustained economic recovery before it adjusted the scale of its bond buying program.

The decision surprised markets, which had been expecting the Fed to cut its USD85 billion-a-month stimulus program by USD10 billion to USD15 billion.

In a press conference following the Fed statement, Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated that the plan to taper asset purchases was never a "preset course," and added that the bank's decision was dependent on how the economic recovery continues to progress.

The central bank also said it will keep interest rates on hold at record low levels until the unemployment rate falls to around 6.5%, as long as inflation doesn't accelerate beyond 2.5% a year.

The dollar found some support after comments by a senior Federal Reserve official on Friday indicated that the bank could start to reduce its stimulus program next month.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the decision not to taper in September was “close” and did not rule out a small reduction in the central bank's bond purchases in October.

The comments came during an interview with Bloomberg television.

In the week ahead, uncertainty over the direction of Federal Reserve policy and the decision over Chairman Ben Bernanke’s eventual successor look likely to weigh on the dollar.

Investors will be closely watching U.S. data on consumer confidence and durable goods orders in an attempt to gauge the strength of the economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 23

Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan is to speak at an event in Zurich.

Tuesday, September 24

The U.S. is to release private sector data on house price inflation, as well as a closely watched report on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, September 25

The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, in addition to a report on new home sales.

Thursday, September 26

The SNB is to publish its quarterly bulletin, which looks at monetary policy.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as final data on second quarter growth and private sector data on pending home sales.

Friday, September 27

Switzerland is to publish the KOF economic barometer, which is designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations from the University of Michigan, as well as data on personal income and expenditure.




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