Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: September 10 - 14

Published 09/09/2012, 04:57 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar plummeted to a two-and-a-half month low against the Swiss franc on Friday, as disappointing U.S. employment data sparked fresh expectations for another round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, sending the greenback broadly lower.

USD/CHF hit 0.9433 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since June20; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9441 by close of trade on Friday, tumbling 1.15% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9369, the low of May 22 and resistance at 0.9579, Friday’s high.

The Department of Labor said on Friday that the U.S. economy added 96,000 jobs in August, well below expectations for 125,000, following a downwardly revised 141,000 in July.

The smaller-than-expected increase in job creation increased the chances that the U.S. central bank will implement further quantitative easing measures to strengthen the U.S. economic recovery, ahead of its upcoming policy meeting.

Following the data, the euro rallied to a nine-month high against the Swissie, climbing 0.90%, to hit 1.2156, its highest level since January 9.

The U.S. report came a day after the European Central Bank announced details of its bond purchasing program aimed at stemming the debt crisis in the euro zone, dubbed Outright Monetary Transactions.

Speaking at the bank’s post-policy meeting press conference on Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi said the plan would provide "a fully effective backstop" against market volatility.

Under the terms of the plan, the ECB would buy unlimited amounts of government bonds of up to three years in maturity, as long as the country in question is signed up to the OMT program and agrees to economic reforms in return for assistance.

Earlier in the week, official data showed that Switzerland’s gross domestic product contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter, disappointing expectations for an expansion of 0.2% and following a downwardly revised 0.5% expansion in the previous quarter.

The data came after Swiss National Bank Thomas President Jordan reiterated his commitment to defend the franc ceiling, saying that “in the current situation, a further appreciation of the Swiss franc would constitute a very substantial threat to the Swiss economy, and would carry with it the risk of deflationary developments”.

In the coming week, investors will be focusing on the outcome of the Fed’s policy meeting on Thursday, amid ongoing speculation over how close policymakers are to implementing more stimulus measures.

Market participants will also be eyeing Wednesday’s German court ruling on the constitutionality of the European Stability Mechanism.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, September 11

The U.S. is to produce a report on trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services.

Wednesday, September 12

The U.S. is to release official data on import prices, followed by a government report on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, September 13

Switzerland is to publish official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation. The Swiss National Bank is also to release the Libor rate, followed by its monetary policy assessment, which will be closely watched.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish government data on producer price inflation, as well as a weekly report on initial jobless claims.

The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate; the announcement is to be accompanied by the bank’s rate statement, which contains insights into current economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Friday, September 14

The U.S. is to round up the week with official reports on consumer price inflation, retail sales and business inventories. The Federal Reserve is also to release data on the capacity utilization rate and industrial production, while the University of Michigan is to produce preliminary reports on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

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