Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: October 4-8

Published 10/03/2010, 08:16 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com – Last week saw the U.S. dollar tumble to a 30-month low against the Swiss franc as speculation that the Federal Reserve would announce fresh stimulus plans for the faltering U.S. economy boosted demand for the safe haven franc.

USD/CHF hit 0.9707 on Thursday, the pair's lowest since March 17, 2008; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9735 by close of trade on Friday, plummeting 0.96% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9634, the low of March 17, 2008, and resistance at 0.9981, the high of September 22.

On Friday, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley, speaking in relation to the U.S. economy said that "The current situation is wholly unsatisfactory". Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that further steps to stimulate the U.S. economy may be "desirable".

The remarks overshadowed Friday's worse-than-expected Swiss data on retail sales and manufacturing.

Official data showed that Swiss retail sales rose 0.5% in August after rising by a revised 4.7% in July. Analysts had expected retail sales to rise by 3.2% in August. Meanwhile, a separate report showed that Switzerland's SVME purchasing managers index fell to its lowest level since February.

Next week, the U.S. is due to release the closely watched ADP report on non-farm employment change ahead of Friday's government data on non-farm payrolls. In addition, the country is to release official data on initial jobless claims, manufacturing activity and pending home sales.

Meanwhile, Switzerland is to release data on consumer price inflation and the country's unemployment rate.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect USD/CHF.

Monday, October 4

The U.S. is to start the week by releasing official data on pending home sales and factory orders, while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to deliver a speech at a public engagement. His comments will be closely scrutinized for any clues to the future direction of monetary policy.

Tuesday, October 5


The U.S. is due to release official data on services sector growth, a leading indicator of economic health.

Meanwhile, Switzerland is to produce official data on consumer price inflation, a leading indicator of economic growth.

Wednesday, October 6

The U.S. is to release a report on ADP non-farm employment change. This data is viewed as an accurate prediction of the governments report on non-farm payrolls released two days later. Also Wednesday, the U.S. is to publish data on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, October 7

The U.S. is to release key weekly data on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of economic health as well as official data on consumer credit and natural gas inventories.

Friday, October 8


The U.S. is to end the week by producing data on non-farm employment change and a report on the country's unemployment rate.

Meanwhile, Switzerland will conclude the week with official data on the country's unemployment rate.

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