Forex - USD/CHF Weekly outlook: October 31-November 4

Published 10/30/2011, 08:09 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar ended the weak sharply lower against the Swiss franc on Friday, as new plans to tackle Greece's financial crisis and to avoid debt contagion in the euro zone weighed on demand for the greenback.

USD/CHF hit 0.8567 on Thursday, the pair's lowest since September 8; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8629 by close of trade on Friday, plunging 2.44% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8441, the low of June 15 and resistance at 0.8824, the high of October 27.

The greenback fell to a seven-week low against the Swissie on Thursday, after European leaders reached an agreement with private banks on a voluntary 50% reduction of Greece's debt. Leaders also agreed to expand the firepower of the euro zone's bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, to EUR1 trillion.

Risk appetite was also boosted after official data showed that U.S. gross domestic product rose by 2.5% in the third quarter, the fastest rate of increase since the third quarter of 2010.

The reading nearly doubled growth of 1.3% recorded in the preceding quarter. Analysts had expected U.S. gross domestic product to rise 2.4% in the third quarter.

But demand for the safe haven dollar found support on Friday, after ratings agency Fitch said that writedowns on Greek debt would indicate a default and after Italy’s borrowing costs rose to a euro lifetime high, following an auction of government debt.

Also Friday, a report showed that Switzerland's KOF economic barometer declined for the sixth consecutive month in October, falling to 0.80 from 1.21 the previous month, indicating that growth is likely to slow in the coming months.  Analysts had expected a reading at 1.00 in October.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday and Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls data. In Switzerland, investors will be eyeing reports on retail sales and manufacturing activity.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 31

The U.S is to produce a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago area, an important indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, November 1

Switzerland is to publish government data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to release data on manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Also Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management is to produce a report on U.S. manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, November 2

The U.S. is to release private sector data on non-farm payrolls that leads government data by two days as well as a government report on crude oil stockpiles.

In addition, the Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The bank’s post-policy meeting press conference will be closely watched for indications to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Thursday, November 3

Leaders from the G-20 group of industrialized nations are to hold talks to discuss a range of global economic topics, including the financial crisis in the euro zone, in Cannes.

The U.S. is to produce its weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as government data on factory orders. The U.S. is also to publish preliminary data on nonfarm productivity and labor costs, important inflationary indicators. In addition the ISM is to release a report on service sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, November 4

The U.S. is to round up the week with its closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls, in addition to official data on the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.

Meanwhile, G-20 leaders are to meet for a second day in Cannes.

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