Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: November 4 - 9

Published 11/04/2012, 05:21 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar rallied to a three-week high against the Swiss franc on Friday, boosted by a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report, while uncertainty ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential elections also  supported safe haven demand.

USD/CHF hit 0.9276 on Wednesday, the pair’s lowest since October 23; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9401 by close of trade on Friday, 0.63% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9312, Friday’s low and near-term resistance at 0.9431, the high of October 10.

The U.S. Department of Labor said the economy added 171,000 jobs in October, beating forecasts for an increase of 125,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9% from 7.8% in September as more people re-entered the labor force.

The better-than-forecast data saw investor’s trim back expectations for another round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, bolstering demand for the greenback.

The dollar also found support amid uncertainty over the outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential elections, with opinion polls indicating a dead heat between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

Investors are concerned over the U.S. fiscal cliff, approximately USD600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1, which could threaten U.S. and global growth.

The Swiss franc was little changed earlier Friday after official data showed that retail sales in Switzerland jumped 5.4% in September, above expectations for a 4.2% gain.

Retail sales for August were revised up to a 6.0% gain from a previously reported 5.9% increase.

A separate report showed that the Swiss SVME purchasing managers’ index rose to 46.1 in September from a reading of 43.6 in August, remaining in contraction territory for the seventh consecutive month.

In the coming week, investors will be anticipating the outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential elections and looking ahead to policy meetings by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday.

In addition, market participants will be awaiting any further developments in the handling of the debt crisis in the euro zone.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 4

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to publish data on service sector activity.

Tuesday, November 6

Switzerland is to publish official data on consumer climate, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

In the U.S, voting in the U.S. presidential elections is to take place.

Wednesday, November 7

The Swiss National Bank is to publish data on foreign currency reserves, giving an insight into the bank’s currency market operations. Switzerland is also to release official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

The U.S. is to publish government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, November 8

The U.S. is to publish official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports, as well as the weekly government report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, November 9

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.



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